In June, as part of an all-caps rant published to his social media platform, Donald Trump said his “real” public support had reached an all-time high. The president kept that vibe going this month, declaring online in early August, “My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been.”

Even members of the Republican’s team have felt compelled to play along. Late last week, for example, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin appeared on Fox News and, pointing to no evidence whatsoever, assured viewers that Trump’s approval rating is “through the roof.”

No, it’s not. Reuters reported:

President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to the lowest level of his presidency, ‌with an overwhelming majority of Americans concerned the U.S. war with Iran will last a long time, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded on Monday.

Just 33% of respondents in the four-day survey said they approved of Trump’s performance in the White House, while 64% disapproved. Trump’s approval rating, down from 35% in a poll that closed earlier this month and ​lower than at any point in his current term, has now tied the lowest level of his prior term reached in December 2017.

These numbers are nearly identical to a national poll commissioned by The Associated Press in late July, which also showed Trump with a 33% approval rating.

While these are obviously just two surveys, The New York Times’ averages of all national polling also show the Republican’s approval and disapproval rating reaching the worst point of his second term.

For months, there’s been a parlor game of sorts in political circles as observers wonder where the president’s floor might be. As Trump’s support falls to new depths, those assessments are being reconsidered.

Let’s also not forget that in the aftermath of the 2024 election, plenty of commentary heralded Trump as some kind of political colossus who had successfully realigned American politics and positioned his party for prolonged electoral success.

Such talk appears quite laughable in hindsight.

I’m mindful of those who argue a focus on Trump’s approval rating is misplaced, since he can’t run for a third term and will almost certainly never appear on a ballot again.

The trouble with that perspective is that congressional Republicans are preparing for a midterm election cycle at the same time the American electorate is turning sharply against a GOP president — whom those same congressional Republicans have championed and followed in sycophantic ways since his return to power.

As New York magazine’s Ed Kilgore explained, “[H]istorically, the single biggest factor shaping midterm elections has always been a president’s job-approval ratings. And Donald Trump’s have been in a yearlong funk punctuated by occasional slides.”

Whether GOP leaders are prepared to admit it or not, the lower the president’s support sinks, the more urgently his party must confront a question about how to respond to reality-based data. Do they take new, meaningful steps to distance themselves from a failing, woefully unpopular president, or do they continue to carry Trump’s water and take their chances with dissatisfied constituents?

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

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