Democrats spent this cycle expanding the Senate map deep into Republican territory — Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Now, eight weeks from Election Day, the surprise is running the other direction, too: New Hampshire, which hasn’t had a close Senate race since Donald Trump was first elected president, is suddenly on the map.
Tuesday’s primaries are expected to set the matchup. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is fending off a challenge from progressive Karishma Mansur for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. On the Republican side, two former senators — John Sununu and Scott Brown — are competing for the nomination. Pappas and Sununu are heavily favored, and both have spent the primary running as though the general election has already begun.
National Democrats hit the snooze button on New Hampshire for a year. They are not anymore.
The reasons why are not complicated.
“It’s because of Sununu,” a Democratic operative told MS NOW, granted anonymity to speak about internal dynamics on the Pappas campaign. ”It’s the only place where they got a recruit, right?”
In Sununu, Washington Republicans landed the candidate they wanted — a former senator, the brother of a recent popular former governor and the son of another former governor, with a family name that has been on ballots here for decades. National Republican groups have spent accordingly: Outside GOP ad spending in the race has topped $30 million, according to ad trackers. And incumbent Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is up for reelection this year in a race she’s widely expected to win — with the potential for coattails for GOP candidates down the ticket.
New Hampshire Republicans want to make the midterm election about state and local issues. Democrats want a referendum on Trump. The state’s famously independent voters will decide which argument lands.
Sununu has largely avoided the national press, instead opting for a hyperlocal campaign. He has not hesitated, however, to welcome the flood of outside money not arriving on his behalf — a cash influx that has alarmed Pappas’s campaign.
Pappas, a four-term congressman, has outraised his likely general election opponent in direct contributions. But that advantage is dwarfed by the millions flowing to Sununu from the Senate Leadership Fund, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, AFP Action, One Nation and Republican megadonor Elon Musk.
“We’re taking nothing for granted, this is a purple state,” Pappas told MS NOW. “We’ve got a path to victory. But it’s going to be a tough race.”
His answer has been to embrace national Democrats rather than keep them at arm’s length. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., both potential 2028 contenders testing out their messages in the early primary state, campaigned across New Hampshire for Democrats over Labor Day weekend. Pappas also touted an endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris, even as other Democratic candidates — Iowa’s Rob Sand and Josh Turek, Alaska’s Mary Peltola — have shied away from her support.
“I think her voice is going to continue to be important for the Democratic Party moving forward,” Pappas said in an interview. “We need all the voices in the tent, and the only way we’re going to win elections in purple states like this is to bring together moderates and progressives and independents and pro-democracy Republicans and people that are opposed to Trump’s policies.”
First, though, he has to get past Mansur, who has attacked him for accepting donations from AIPAC — a line of criticism he has dodged on the debate stage and in interviews.
“It’s not just about AIPAC. We’re trying to get money out of politics,” Mansur told MS NOW. “We want our lawmakers to answer to the people, not to their donors, not to special interests.”
Mansur has repeatedly refused to say she would back Pappas in the general election if he is the nominee.
Democrats in the state are not especially worried about the primary. “I think it’s just the cycle for these things to be coming up,” the Democratic operative in New Hampshire told MS NOW, downplaying the possibility of a Mansur upset. Candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America have won elsewhere, the operative acknowledged, but New Hampshire’s independent streak makes for harder ground: “It’s just a less hospitable environment for it, frankly.”
In the Republican primary, Brown has criticized Sununu as missing in action.
“At least I’m showing up,” Brown told MS NOW at a Labor Day parade in Milford. “I’m not avoiding debates, and I’m answering every and all questions. And he’s not.”
Sununu, who once called Trump a “loser,” has barely mentioned the president’s endorsement — a distance Brown has seized on.
“He’s embarrassed by it,” Brown said. “What did he give up to get that endorsement? I call balls and strikes. That’s why I didn’t get it. … I don’t want Canada to be the 51st state. I want this war in Iran to end.”
Those attacks have not moved much. Sununu has maintained a healthy double-digit lead over Brown in polls. But the general election is likely to be fought on different ground between two candidates who have been fixtures in New Hampshire politics for years and who generate little of the noise that draws national attention.
That is part of why the race went unnoticed for so long, said Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College.
“They’re not exactly candidates that do these sort of outrageous things or say these outrageous things,” he said. “They’re very strong and steady — no drama — and so that’s probably what’s attracted less attention. But one seat in the Senate is one seat. They’re all the same value.”
Levesque expects Social Security, tariffs, corruption and the Iran war to dominate the fall — sentiments echoed by voters. “Trump has always won on the economy. He can’t anymore because of the high prices, the war, etc.,” he said. “People who are concerned about the economy are the people I would watch.”
Mike Dennehy, a longtime New Hampshire Republican operative, is bullish on Sununu, arguing his name recognition combined with Ayotte’s popularity is “a one-two punch” the state has rarely seen.
“Sununu’s strength is that he is a fantastic campaigner. He knows New Hampshire, he knows the people, and he’s always been able to connect with voters about their concerns, voters can see him as a U.S. senator because he was a U.S. senator” Dennehy said. “If he loses, it would just be simply because of a national wave against the Republican Party.”
Voters, meanwhile, described an economy they cannot make sense of and a politics they are tired of.
Joanne Palys, 65, said the economy “totally sucks” and she hopes Pappas wins the general election.
“I’m very scared about this election because I’ve been very depressed,” Palys told MS NOW. She said her top issue is to “get rid of Trump” and his supporters in government.
Mike Turner, a self-described “Reagan conservative,” said inflation is “out of control” and “unbearable,” and criticized Trump’s trade war against Canada. “Tariffs are evil,” he said. But he plans to vote for Sununu, and said he will stick with the Republican ticket regardless of Tuesday’s result.
Jaime Beckford, a 34-year-old health care worker, said she’s “really disappointed in just everything” and not sure which party’s primary ballot she’ll choose on Tuesday.
“I have a hard time just committing to one or the other,” she said.
She will decide on Tuesday. Then both parties will spend the next eight weeks counting on her to decide again.
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