With just three primaries left on the calendar, this long season is finally nearing its finale. Most of Democratic energy is focused on primaries past, notably Michigan, Texas and Maine. This makes some sense. All of those states are very important seats that the party needs to either hold on to or flip in November. But there’s one state that Democrats still need to defend that has gone largely unnoticed: New Hampshire.
After Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement last year, New Hampshire’s Senate seat has been assumed to be leaning blue, with Rep. Chris Pappas expected to safely sweep the nomination on Sept. 8. But as a fellow teacher tells Arnold Schwarzenegger in the philosophical classic, “Kindergarten Cop,” “Kindergarten is like the ocean. You don’t want to turn your back on it.”
Pappas and establishment Democrats should probably have treated this election like kindergarten — or at least, like the ocean.
Instead, for much of his campaign, Pappas seemed to turn his back on Democratic Socialists of America challenger Dr. Karishma Manzur. As recently as two months ago, a local news station didn’t even mention the name of the candidate challenging Pappas for the nomination, focusing most of the interview on his likely general election opponent, former New Hampshire congressman and Sen. John E. Sununu. Sununu held the seat from 2003 to 2009 before losing to the retiring Shaheen. As a result, he remains a well-respected and familiar face in Granite State politics.
Since that interview, however, Manzur has proven herself to be a worthy primary opponent, and the DSA has emerged as a national force to be reckoned with. And with days to go, democratic socialists in the state are trying to make the race in New Hampshire interesting, too. This is a problem not because Pappas could lose — still an unlikely scenario — but because the last-minute flurry is diverting attention from a general election contest that could end up being pivotal for Democrats’ Senate hopes. And it’s highlighting Pappas’ weaknesses even as he prepares to move on to the next round.
Last week, the University of New Hampshire released a poll showing Manzur has considerably closed the gap. The poll had Pappas leading Manzur 47% to 34%, with 18% still undecided. Also concerning, Pappas was polling under 50% for the first time, which is never a good sign entering the last couple of weeks of an election.
While it remains improbable that Manzur will actually win, we should remember that this has been an unpredictable campaign cycle. In Florida’s Senate primary last month, state lawmaker and democratic socialist Angie Nixon stunned the establishment by defeating the much more nationally known Alex Vindman, who gained widespread recognition for his role in President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial. Plus, with such a large number of voters still undecided, stranger things have happened.
Pappas has been campaigning for well over a year. He has racked up the expected endorsements, including a recent one from former Vice President Kamala Harris, and everything points to him winning his primary. However, he has, until recently, largely been running what I’d describe as a relatively paint-by-numbers effort.
And this could ultimately lead to an even bigger problem for Pappas and the Democrats after this primary because there is an excellent chance that New Hampshire becomes a true toss-up race in November. In the same University of New Hampshire poll, Pappas is now polling behind Sununu 43% to 45%, while 5% said they would vote for another candidate if the race were held today and 7% remained undecided. (In other words, the race remains a statistical tie.)
So while trying to pick up four Republican seats, Democrats may also have to go all in to avoid losing New Hampshire. That’s a scenario the Democrats definitely do not want to turn their backs on.
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