New Hampshire is one of the final states to hold its primaries this year, and there is no doubt that the road to a successful midterms will be paved in the Granite State.
While more and more states have become more uniformly Republican or Democratic, in New Hampshire, split-ticket voting remains common, even routine, despite Republican control of the governor’s office, Executive Council and both chambers of the state Legislature. Yet Democrats hold both Senate seats and both House seats. In a state where diversity of ideas and thought is still reflected at the ballot box, candidates and campaigns matter more, and voters can shake hands and speak directly with those running multiple times throughout the campaign.
With senior Sen. Jeanne Shaheen retiring, the open Senate seat is a must-hold for Democrats to flip the chamber as a whole, and a big opportunity for Republicans.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is now running for the Senate. He is a four-term congressman who has won in a GOP-leaning district, including beating Karoline Leavitt in a general election in 2022. But in order to make it to the general, he must prevail in Tuesday’s primary against a relatively unknown progressive challenger, scientist Dr. Karishma Manzur. Polls show Pappas with a lead but a recent University of New Hampshire poll showed his margin shrinking. Add in the unpredictability of primaries this year, and this contest is worth watching closely, at least as a test of Pappas’ strength ahead of a competitive general election.
On the Republican side are two former senators who have both lost races against Shaheen. Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate, moved north after losing to Elizabeth Warren in 2012, and ran unsuccessfully against Shaheen in 2014. His opponent, John E. Sununu, is looking to regain the seat he lost in 2008. In addition to his term in the Senate and three terms in the House, Sununu is part of the state’s political royalty: His brother just finished eight years as a popular governor, and his father served as governor and White House chief of staff to George H.W. Bush.
Thanks to his name and a Trump endorsement, Sununu is almost assured a primary win. But the president’s backing could be problematic in a general election, since Trump’s approval ratings in New Hampshire are negative by 20 points or more. Recent polls of a Sununu-Pappas matchup show a close race, ranging from a 7-point Pappas advantage to a 2-point Sununu lead.
The race to replace Pappas in the state’s first congressional district is heating up, too. The Democratic field of eight candidates includes Shaheen’s daughter Stefany Shaheen, former Obama administration official and Marine veteran Maura Sullivan, and union activist and teacher Carleigh Beriont. The race has been somewhat ugly with accusations of AIPAC influence, nepotism and which candidates are authentic progressives. Polls show Sullivan with a narrow lead over Shaheen, but with many voters undecided and a large field, anything could happen.
In the Republican primary, the two major candidates are Trump-backed developer Anthony DiLorenzo and metal fabrication business owner Hollie Noveletsky, who finished second in the 2024 GOP primary. Recent surveys show nearly half of voters undecided.
Two years ago, Pappas carried this district by roughly 8%, and Kamala Harris carried it by just 2%. Whoever emerges from Tuesday’s contests, Democrats simply have to win this district if they hope to win a House majority.
Finally, New Hampshire’s outsize influence on presidential nominations makes it attractive for ambitious out-of-state politicians. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., will be at the Democrats’ Labor Day Breakfast, as will progressive California Rep. Ro Khanna. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will attend a fundraising dinner for the state party. Other potential Democratic candidates have already made stops in the state, including Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., will visit the state the day after the primary and his fellow Republican Rick Scott will be there the following week for a dinner.
New Hampshire may be the ultimate skeleton key to GOP or Democrat majorities. But it is also clear that some are eager to help their party’s fortunes now in order to increase their own fortunes in the future. Election Day this year is Nov. 3. The presidential race in New Hampshire begins Nov. 4.
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