When the polls close in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, the primary season will unofficially be over.
A few primaries remain, including Rhode Island’s competitive governor’s race on Wednesday, but both parties will have chosen their nominees for the races that will determine control of Congress.
Since the primaries kicked off in earnest in early March, strategists from both parties and independent analysts have pored over results looking for answers. But every theory has proved only provisional.
Are Democrats facing a Tea Party movement of their own? Not exactly. Are voters concerned about older politicians? Sometimes.
Still, the primaries offered some clear lessons about how voters are responding to President Donald Trump and national Democratic leaders, the role age can play and the unusual map that awaits in November.
Trump put himself on the ballot
Facing a tough midterm environment, some presidents might have stepped back and let candidates run their own races. Not Trump. His endorsements helped unseat two Republican Senate incumbents — John Cornyn of Texas and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — and gave every other GOP candidate reason to seek his approval or fear a similar fate. Now, even as some Republicans quietly scrub his name from their websites for the general election, Trump is staging an unprecedented midterm convention built around two speeches of his own.
Democratic voters did not take orders from D.C.
National Democrats had clear preferences as the primaries began. Party leaders rallied behind Haley Stevens in Michigan, Angie Craig in Minnesota and a string of House candidates the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee considered better bets for November. But in several of the year’s most closely watched contests, voters went with someone else. Although sometimes that meant a more liberal pick, it was hardly a progressive revolt. Sometimes, as in Wisconsin, Democratic voters chose the more moderate candidate backed by party leaders. But voters made clear it was their choice to make.
Age was a concern, but not a deal breaker
Americans broadly support the idea of putting a maximum age limit for members of Congress. But the primaries showed that age alone was not disqualifying. Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, 80, beat a younger challenger in Massachusetts, as did Reps. Bennie Thompson, Richard Neal and Stephen Lynch. But younger challengers prevailed when they were able to make a broader case for generational change, as Luke Bronin did with Rep. John Larson and Melat Kiros did with Rep. Diana DeGette. On the Republican side, the highest-profile incumbent losses were more about loyalty to Trump than age.
Democrats shifted tactics on gerrymandering
For years, many Democratic-led states have pursued reforms intended to curb gerrymandering, while the GOP has generally been less interested. But Trump’s push for mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled states prompted a shift in Democratic strategy. The party still opposes gerrymandering in principle, but it has become more willing to support counter-maps meant to offset a Republican advantage in another state. California voters approved a new map explicitly designed to counter the Texas GOP redraw. And in Virginia, a poll found that voters narrowly backed a Democratic-backed map even though many also said it was unfair.
The Senate map is still hard for Democrats
An already difficult Senate map grew more complicated when Democratic senators in Michigan and New Hampshire announced their retirements. To win a majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, requiring them to hold those open seats, defend Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and flip several Republican-held seats. The primaries produced an unusual map in which toss-ups include Texas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 1988; and Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a comeback. But even a strong November would most likely leave Democrats with only a narrow majority.
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