As your high school English teacher may have told you, all drama is rooted in conflict. This may help explain why the supposed “battle for the soul of the Democratic Party” between the left and the center has occupied so much attention during this primary season. But while there certainly is an internal power struggle there, that may obscure an equally important phenomenon defining this election: Democrats of all kinds — leftists, moderates and anyone in between — are turning out to vote at rates that should terrify their Republican opponents.
Primary turnout isn’t the only way to measure the enthusiasm that will translate into votes in the fall. But it’s a particularly good one, because it’s precise and offers a way to compare this election to prior years when we know what happened in the general election.
Wisconsin is the most closely divided state in the country; the last three presidential races were all decided there by less than one percentage point.
One useful case study is the recent primary in Wisconsin. The dramatic twists in the gubernatorial race that ended when David Crowley nosed out the progressive upstart Francesca Hong was the main story, but there was also a flood of Democrats heading to the polls.
Wisconsin is the most closely divided state in the country; the last three presidential races were all decided there by less than one percentage point. This year, about 491,000 Republican voters cast ballots in the governor’s race, the most important on the ticket. But on the Democratic side, a whopping 792,000 people turned out to vote.
One explanation for that disparity is that while the Democratic governor contest was contested, the GOP race was a snoozer; MAGA Rep. Tom Tiffany had no serious opposition and won 95% of the vote. Fair enough, so let’s compare this year to previous midterm primaries in Wisconsin.
Four years ago, when Joe Biden was president and Republicans hoped for a midterm wave, Gov. Tony Evers ran unopposed and got just under 492,000 votes — almost exactly the number of Republicans who voted this year. Meanwhile, businessman Tim Michels won a close GOP primary, beating out former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. In that race, 694,000 Republican votes were cast — almost 100,000 fewer than Democrats cast this year.
In 2018, Donald Trump was president and Democrats were headed for a midterm sweep that would see them take control of the House, gain a net of 7 governorships and flip six state legislative chambers from red to blue. That year, 539,000 Democrats turned out in the crowded primary that Evers won, while 456,000 voted in the Republican primary featuring incumbent Scott Walker, which means this year, a quarter-million more Democrats voted in the Wisconsin primary than they did the last time Democrats smoked Republicans in the general election.
The primary season isn’t over, but we’ve seen similar results in state after state. Each state is unique, especially since some races feature competitive primaries on both sides, while others have only one party with a real contest. But here are illustrative turnout results from some of the states that will be key in November (the data for prior years have been collected by the Bipartisan Policy Center; figures for 2026 come from The Associated Press):
In Michigan, where Mike Rogers was running unopposed for the GOP Senate nomination, we can look at the governor’s race as a good comparison; Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, and there were contests in both parties. There, 931,000 ballots were cast on the Republican side, while 1,500,000 Democratic ballots were cast (about the same as in the Senate race won by Abdul El-Sayed). In the governor’s primary four years ago, Republicans cast 1.1 million votes, while Democrats cast 938,000. Four years before that in 2018, Democrats cast 1.1 million and Republicans cast 930,000. In other words, while in previous midterms one side slightly outperformed the other on primary turnout in this swing state, this year, Democrats blew Republicans out of the water.
In 2018, in Minnesota, when Sen. Amy Klobuchar was up for re-election in a strong Democratic year, 582,000 Democrats voted in the primary, compared to 290,000 Republicans — 66% more Democrats than Republicans. In Tuesday’s Minnesota Senate primary, 696,000 Democrats voted in the state while 386,000 Republicans did, meaning Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout by 80%.
In Tuesday’s Minnesota Senate primary, 696,000 Democrats voted in the state while 386,000 Republicans did.
In the red state of Texas, Republican primary votes usually outnumber Democratic votes by enormous margins. For instance, two years ago, when Ted Cruz was up for reelection, more than twice as many Republican ballots were cast in the primary. In 2018, Republican ballots exceeded Democratic ones by 45%; in 2022, the figure was 82%. This year, 2.17 million Republican ballots were cast in the primary for Senate — but 2.3 million Democratic ballots were cast. The fact that more Democrats voted than Republicans in the primary this year in Texas is simply stunning.
The last time there was a Senate election in slightly Republican-leaning North Carolina was in 2022, when Biden was president. That year, 765,000 Republicans voted in the primary, as did 618,000 Democrats. This year, though both primaries were essentially foregone conclusions (with former Gov. Roy Cooper winning for Democrats and Trump ally Michael Whatley for Republicans), 627,000 Republicans turned out, about what Democrats did four years ago. But 828,000 Democrats did.
As everyone knows, midterm elections almost always go poorly for the president’s party. Trump is spectacularly unpopular right now, with approval ratings hovering in the low-to-mid 30s, which drags every Republican candidate down. In some primaries, Democratic voters chose a more progressive, outsider candidate; in others they went for a more conventional choice. But the common thread is that those voters turned out at an exceedingly high rate. As Barack Obama used to say, Democrats are fired up and ready to go, not just grumbling but making sure they cast their ballots. It’s about as good an indication of how this election will turn out as one can find.
The post Democrats face big challenges in the midterms. Voter turnout isn’t one of them. appeared first on MS NOW.
