Experts call it “The Iron Law”: The sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats during the midterm election. But that tendency can be exacerbated — or blunted — by a key factor: gas prices.
As Republicans scramble to defend their House majority in November, gas prices are becoming a major concern — both for voters and for the GOP lawmakers trying to hold onto their seats.
A recent Politico analysis found that incumbents tend to pay a more significant electoral price during midterm elections when costs at the pump are higher, with the president’s party losing 32 House seats on average since 1978 when gas costs more, and only shedding six seats when prices are down.
But for Republicans, that history is taking on new significance for a simple reason: President Donald Trump can be blamed for the spike in gas prices. There’s a direct line between the war Trump launched in Iran and the higher costs, and Republicans have done little to rein in the president or even call out the consequences of his decision.
The situation has put GOP lawmakers in a political bind: they are stuck defending the administration’s economy and Trump’s handling of the Iran war while also showing constituents they understand and sympathize with the pain they’re feeling at the pump.
Republicans know it’s a difficult spot, and some GOP lawmakers acknowledge that they and their party need to do a better job.
“The bottom line is, really and truly, if you’re not concerned and sympathetic about gas prices for people, then really and truly, we’re not thinking very right, because we got a lot of people that are really hurting,” Sen. Jim Justice, R – W.V., told MS NOW.
Justice added that, if Republicans weren’t concerned by the rise in gas prices, “they’re living in a cave.”
“The political blowback will be substantial,” he said
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, argued the political fallout for Republicans is already here.
“I think we’re already seeing blowback from people, from Americans, about the affordability issue,” Murkowski told MS NOW. “And that absolutely includes gas prices.”
Gas prices skyrocketed at the start of the Iran war, and have remained high, as the conflict continues to disrupt global trade routes. The national average for a gallon is above $4, according to AAA, and it’s roughly 30% higher than it was a year ago.
One swing-district House Republican told MS NOW they are “just as frustrated” about the elevated gas prices as voters.
“I wish the administration had a plan,” this GOP lawmaker told MS NOW. “Obviously the fuel prices are having a devastating impact on people across the district and across the country.”
This Republican added that the people most upset about gas prices were “ultimately the folks that we need to turn out.”
But National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina — who is tasked with holding the Republican majority in the House — has defended the administration’s actions in Iran and put the responsibility on candidates to explain it to voters.
“President Trump did the right thing, and we need to support what he’s doing. And if that means we have to go to the voters and explain it, so be it,” Hudson told MS NOW last month. “That’s our job.”
Hudson added that Trump was “saving the world from a crazy ayatollah with a nuclear weapon in Iran,” and he tried to thread the needle on recognizing the economic pain that voters are feeling by arguing it’s temporary.
“As soon as we can resolve the situation in Iran, your gas prices are going to plummet,” he said.
Hudson pointed to gas prices under the Biden administration, which reached record highs in 2022 largely due to supply chain concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Democrats lost nine seats in that midterm election and, subsequently, control of the chamber.
But this year is somewhat different. Drivers have endured elevated prices with little reprieve for months, and prices are at the highest level ever for this time of year. Unlike in 2022, when Republicans could point to an external crisis and blame the incumbent party, Democrats are also already tying today’s prices directly to Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran.
And now Trump himself is making that argument easier for Democrats.
The president has repeatedly acknowledged that the Iran war is contributing to higher energy costs — while arguing that Americans should accept the pain as the price of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
On Friday, Trump urged Americans to accept “a tiny little bit more” for gasoline as the cost of confronting Iran, saying that preventing the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon was worth the higher prices and that he would “never apologize” for that trade.
And in May, he said he doesn’t think about the “financial situation” of Americans.
“I don’t think about anybody,” Trump said. “I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all. That’s the only thing.”
It all points to a tough climate for Republicans.
Dr. Ross Burkhart, a political science professor at Boise State University who has studied the ties between gas prices and election outcomes, said his research shows a moderate correlation between party approval ratings and gas prices. But this November, he said, that correlation could be much stronger.
“This year, I think there is truly a clear connection between actions taken by President Trump and their impact on gas prices,” Burkhart said. “And I think this year thus is quite different from previous midterm elections in that regard.”
Democrats are seizing on the opportunity to appeal to voters.
“Republicans promised not to start endless wars in the Middle East, but to stop them, and then turned around and got us involved in this reckless and costly war of choice in Iran, and gas prices are skyrocketing out of control in an economy that is suffocating and drowning the American people,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said during a press conference last month.
Gas prices are a particular concern for Republicans, as their constituents drive 26% more miles than a Democratic member’s average constituent, according to The Brookings Institution.
But Adie Tomer, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, told MS NOW that greater concern is “more about geography than it is partisanship.”
“Republican members, their constituents right now are feeling it more so than Democrats,” Tomer said.
“Gasoline is one of those unavoidable costs. It might as well be like food to most households, because over 95% of households drive,” Tomer added. “So we know that elevated gasoline prices for sustained periods of time, which is exactly what we’re in right now, is going to be top of mind when they go to vote.”
And Tomer said voters don’t have to pay much attention to the news to know “who drove the situation.”
“This is going to be really tough for incumbents, particularly those associated with the president, because it’s just going to be hard to get out from it,” Tomer told MS NOW.
The impact on people’s wallets is a key indicator for election forecasters like Dr. Michael Lewis-Beck and Dr. Charles Tien, who developed a political economy model that considers presidential approval ratings and disposable personal income to estimate how many seats the incumbent will lose in November.
Their “referendum” model predicts that Republicans will lose 33 House seats in the midterm election — which, as Lewis-Beck put it, would be “a serious blow to the Republican Party.”
A Politico poll found that 46% of voters said gas prices will impact the way they plan to vote in November. But only 15% of those who said it will impact their vote said they would vote for a different party.
“People are very resistant to changing their party, even if the house is floating down the river from a flood,” Lewis-Beck said.
Mychael Schnell and Syedah Asghar contributed to this report.
The post The simple reason high gas prices could cost Republicans in November appeared first on MS NOW.
