Gas prices are back above $4 a gallon just as the midterm campaign enters the home stretch. And Republicans are painfully aware that voters are paying attention.
But even as some GOP lawmakers acknowledge the political danger, few are willing to blame President Donald Trump for the pain at the pump — or criticize his decision to launch war with Iran.
Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina — who, as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is tasked with keeping the GOP in control of the House — told MS NOW that Republicans are “watching” both the price of gas and the fight with Iran.
“It’s certainly something we’re concerned about,” Hudson said, though he added that “President Trump did the right thing” in going after Iran.
“We need to support what he’s doing,” he said. “If that means we have to go to the voters and explain it, so be it.”
He insisted it is not impacting the NRCC’s polling “so far.”
Another Republican with experience leading his party’s election effort — Sen. Rick Scott, who previously chaired the Senate GOP’s campaign arm — echoed that sentiment.
“We’ve got to explain to people that, you know, unfortunately until we get some new leadership in Iran, we’re going to continue to see conflict, which is going to see higher gas prices,” the Florida Republican said.
The question is whether voters will accept the explanation. Republicans are keenly aware that when you’re explaining, you’re often losing.
Some Republicans who are not on the ballot this fall — after failing to overcome primary challengers — suggested their party could be held liable by voters if they’re left defending the high prices.
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., for instance, hinted to MS NOW that voters could become disenchanted despite GOP spin.
“Eventually, I think people’s pocketbooks are going to impose reality on them, and they’re going to quit watching Fox and pay more attention to the gas prices,” he said.
When MS NOW pressed Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., if the prices are a liability for Republicans, Cassidy said, “Good policy is good politics, and so if we can address the affordability issue, that’s important to the American people.”
Last week — as the renewed hostilities entered their second week — oil prices rose roughly 10%. Meanwhile, polling suggests that any gains Trump saw in his approval rating since declaring a ceasefire in April have largely evaporated.
Among rank-and-file Republicans, many were quick to admit that the higher price tag for a gallon of gas is not ideal. But they quickly pivoted to insisting that the current prices are “temporary.” Many blamed local regulations for the costs, name-checked former President Joe Biden, or even alleged price gouging.
“We’ve got to be concerned. Affordability is a huge issue,” Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., said. But he maintained that “the president will get the war under control.”
Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., invoked the last administration, telling MS NOW, “Biden gave you $5 gas for no good reason, and President Trump — all Republicans — want to lower gas prices and make things more affordable for Americans.”
“In the meantime,” Budd said, “we’re trying to fix a problem that came to us, and that’s a country that shouts death to America.”
Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., who is seeking reelection in a district Democrats are targeting, told MS NOW economic factors “obviously” impact elections.
But, he said, “California policies had a bigger impact on fuel prices than the very unpopular situation we’ve got going on in Iran.”
Rep. Mike Lawler — who is defending a New York district that Kamala Harris won in 2024 — said he of course wants prices to come down. But he again pivoted to castigating Democrats.
“We don’t purchase Iranian petroleum, right?” Lawler said, arguing it is time for America to “actually increase domestic production of energy, which so many of the Democrats are opposed to.”
Rep. Tim Moore, R-N.C., and Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., blamed companies and businesses for potential price gouging.
“Very little of our supply of oil even comes from the Middle East,” Moore told MS NOW, “So it seems to me you may have some profiteering out there.”
“You got to put it on the oil companies. They’re just greedy,” Burchett said.
(The United States gets only a small share of its crude oil directly from the Middle East, but oil is traded on a global market, meaning disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can drive up prices worldwide regardless of where U.S. imports originate.)
Another Republican — Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas — said he is “not concerned” about gas prices.
“The only reason you’re talking about gas prices is because we’re a few months away from a general election, and you’re just trying to get people irritated,” he told MS NOW. “That’s what you do.”
“We knew it was going to go up, but it is really temporary,” Nehls said.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — who holds another vulnerable seat Democrats are targeting — said costs across the board should be brought down.
“I don’t think we can just paint one big broad brush about affordability,” Fitzpatrick said. “I don’t think it’s just about gas prices, although that is a big piece of it.”
Democrats — who are running on an “affordability” message — are latching on to what they see as an easy way to cast the GOP as out of touch with the economic pain of everyday Americans.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., has sought to highlight the price increase — and put it squarely at the feet of Republicans. In a recent social media post, he wrote, “Gas prices are back above $4 per gallon. The Republican war of choice in Iran is making life more expensive.”
Two-thirds of Americans said they are facing financial hardship due to the rise in gas prices, according to a Gallup poll conducted in June. Among those reporting hardship, 17% called it “severe,” which is down from 22% in 2022
Fifty-seven percent of the respondents to the Gallup poll said they’re driving less because of the rise in prices at the pump, and 46% said they altered their summer vacation plans.
A separate poll conducted earlier this month for Politico found most American adults blame the war for those higher gas prices — including, notably, 57% of MAGA voters.
Additionally, Politico’s analysis of their poll found that of the 46% of Americans who said gas prices will impact their vote, nearly 40% said they are “considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49% of MAGA Republicans.”
Rep. Pat Ryan, D-N.Y. — who is seeking a third full term in a traditionally competitive congressional district — told MS NOW, “I wouldn’t want to be a Republican running on this entire record of this administration.”
Trump had promised, he noted, to “lower costs and stop wars.”
Instead, Ryan said, “costs have skyrocketed, and we started multiple wars.”
Nora McKee contributed to this report.
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