When the Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s tariffs policy in a 6-3 ruling in February, the president responded with predictable tantrums and meltdowns. Given the circumstances, however, the Republican probably should have responded with a thank-you note — because whether he realized it or not, the high court’s majority had done him a favor.
Tariffs were a big reason the first year of Trump’s second term was the worst for economic growth in nine years, and the worst for job growth in 16 years (excluding the pandemic). Indeed, it’s probably not a coincidence that the U.S. job market showed sharp improvements immediately after the White House was forced to abandon its trade tariffs.
And yet the Republican administration has decided to move forward with a new set of trade tariffs. MS NOW reported:
The White House will impose new tariffs on the United States’ top 60 trading partners, which senior administration officials allege have violated forced labor laws.
The new tariffs, set at 10% and 12.5%, will take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET Friday, the same day the president’s global 10% tariffs are set to expire after a 150-day deadline.
The tariffs are based on a creative interpretation of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose penalties on countries that have allegedly failed to enforce prohibitions on the importation of goods produced by forced labor.
The explanation, however, is a rather obvious fig leaf, used to justify tariffs Trump has long wanted to impose anyway.
The economic impact is expected to be relatively limited, at least in the short term, although as Bloomberg News noted, the policy nevertheless saddles “American importers with costs” that will be passed along to American consumers.
But it’s worth pausing to appreciate the political impact.
In early April, MS NOW host Catherine Rampell wrote a piece for The Bulwark with a memorable headline: “Is Trump Trying to Lose the Midterms?” Rampell’s piece began, “I’m not saying Donald Trump is trying to lose the midterms. But if he were, would he really be doing anything differently?”
Nearly four months later, I find myself asking the same question. Trump’s tariffs, for example, have been broadly unpopular, specifically because of their impact on the affordability crisis, but he’s pushing a new round of tariffs anyway. He’s also pushing energy prices higher, intensifying a historically unpopular war with Iran, touting data centers that most Americans seem to hate, picking unnecessary fights with his own allies on Capitol Hill — all while calling attention to assorted renovation projects that the public opposes by a roughly 2 to 1 margin.
It’s hard to believe the president actually wants to create a public backlash with roughly 100 days remaining before Election Day 2026, but it’s easy to believe Republican incumbents and candidates would prefer to see Trump pursuing a very different agenda right now.
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