Maine Democrats on Saturday are poised to swap out a scandal-ridden candidate in a critical Senate race for a replacement that gives them a chance to win in November.
That’s the easy part.
This fall’s midterm elections will give Democrats potentially their best window yet at unseating Republican Sen. Susan Collins, a moderate lawmaker who defied expectations six years ago when she won her seat once again. Now whether or not Democrats can defeat her could be the difference between the party having a chance taking back the Senate for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, or struggling to make a dent in his agenda.
Concerns about Graham Platner, the man Maine Democrat primary voters had picked to run against Collins, were apparent even before a woman accused him of sexual assault earlier this month. While Platner issued a denial, he soon left the race which led to a frantic and hastily assembled campaign to find a replacement.
That alternative is former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who appeared to have won over the necessary support needed to become the party’s chosen candidate ahead of Saturday’s party event.
Work to keep Collins in office however, has been underway for months, leaving Democrats with an element of catching-up to do.
“I don’t think they have enough time to put together a coherent campaign. I really don’t. And the candidate who now is in that driver’s seat is maybe not as flawed, but has many flaws,” said Jim Deyermond, chairman of the Maine GOP.
Collins is something of an enigma in her party. She’s the only New England Republican in Congress, someone who can be viewed as both a moderate lawmaker and a reliable Republican when needed. She’s one of the few Republicans left in Congress who voted to hold Trump accountable after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and possibly the only member of the GOP that could hold on to this seat in this cycle’s partisan environment.
And in politics, sometimes forces other than a candidate’s campaign messaging are what makes the difference.
“Even though we’ve got only a few days with this new candidate, the momentum was there. The education of the voters about why this is about the majority in the Senate and stopping Donald Trump and all those kind of things, has already been happening,” Maine Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree said. “I think because they’re such central themes to this particular campaign, it’s less about, do you know the candidates, in a way.”
Platner’s initial success in the primary could be a challenge as well. In his Bernie Sanders-backed campaign, Platner attempted to strike an everyman political tone that helped him stand out and chase the favored pick of Democratic leadership, Gov. Janet Mills, from being viable well before last month’s primary.
While Jackson is politically aligned with Platner and has a legislative record he also carries a less polished approach that saw him finish third in June’s primary for governor. He also has a patchwork record in terms of political leanings over his decades-long career in public life, yet has the union bonafides and experience as a logger that helped him quickly stand out in the rush to replace Platner, which could make all the difference in November against Collins.
There’s also a level of past embarrassment in Maine for Democrats after they failed to capitalize on national momentum during the 2020 cycle. While Democrats won back the Senate by the thinnest of control, it wasn’t with Maine’s help. Collins, running for re-election during the pandemic, was able to defeat Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by more than 8 points to win a fifth term even when many polls showed her losing up until the real test of election day.
Republicans have a candidate in Collins who has shown the ability to defy normal partisan trends, even if this year proves to be the toughest re-election race of her career.
“I don’t know that I can give you a prediction on exactly how much it’s going to cost, but it’s going to be over a $200 million race, and Republicans are going to win it. Probably still get outspent,” said Jason Savage, senior political adviser with Maine’s Republican Party.
Democrats are hoping that the political anger toward the incumbent president’s party that typically encapsulates a midterm will help make the difference this time around. But losing the Senate race here remains a real possibility for the party, especially given the Platner debacle. Maine is a unique place, with a makeup of people that hasn’t minded defying leading Democrats logic as of late.
That’s shown by Democratic congressman Jared Golden, a moderate who made a name for himself by siding against his own party during his time in office. It’s an approach that helped him hold on to his district despite Republicans eagerly trying to see him lose.
Golden’s not running this time around. He likely would have been a formidable Senate candidate had he chosen to enter the fray. Jackson, and his allies in Maine, have a tight window to both endear him to the party’s Democratic coalitions, and try to win over the voters who have sided with Collins in the past but could be open to going against her this fall.
That’s the complexity within the challenges of a campaign with roughly 100 days to make its case.
“I guess they could just look back at my last four campaigns,” said Golden, who won his competitive seat four times despite national Republican attention. “There’s a nice little roadmap there.”
Mychael Schnell and Olympia Sonnier contributed to this report.
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