There are just six weeks to go until midterm elections. The national average for a gallon of gas is just a couple cents short of $4.50. Diesel has climbed above $6.50. And Republicans are officially freaking out.
Last week, House GOP lawmakers got into a heated shouting match over what to do about one of the party’s biggest vulnerabilities — those soaring gas prices — with a private meeting ending without a path forward.
Vice President JD Vance traveled to Kansas to campaign for Republicans on the ballot, a sign of the increasingly competitive environment even in reliably red territories. And after months of speculation that he may not spend, President Donald Trump is unleashing tens of millions of dollars from his super PAC, trying to give struggling candidates a late boost.
Publicly, Republicans are putting on a brave face, insisting that Democratic dreams of a wave election are far from certain. But privately, GOP lawmakers say they see the writing on the wall, recognizing that even some relatively safe districts could be vulnerable.
“We’re gonna get crushed,” one House Republican told MS NOW. “The only question is by how much.”
This GOP lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to discuss the internal dynamics, called this midterm cycle “a gasoline and ground beef election.”
“And when you’ve got ground beef at $9 a pound and diesel at $6.50 to $7.50. We’re getting screwed,” the member said.
Another House Republican, who was also granted anonymity, told MS NOW that if you’re a Republican and you’re not concerned, “you’re stupid.”
“On the macro level, yes, they’re concerned, of course they should be,” the lawmaker said. “But is there still hope? Absolutely. Are many of these races within striking distance? They are, if you believe polling.”
That anxiety for Republicans is taking hold with just 42 days until the midterms, and polls showing Democrats with a solid advantage nationally.
An NBC News poll released on Sunday found Democrats with a five-point edge on the generic ballot, with 50% of respondents saying they’d prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress and 45% of respondents preferring a Republican-controlled Congress. Five percent of respondents said they were undecided.
A Fox News poll released last week found Democrats with a seven-point edge.
As the polls show Democratic leads and the clock unwinds toward November, Republicans are starting to realize they may have just a little time left before they lose their covered trifecta in Washington.
But while Republicans are watching the polls, their actions in Washington suggest they aren’t doing much to change the narrative.
The House fled Washington last Wednesday, cutting the week short and nixing the final two weeks they were scheduled to be in session.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said the reason for the early dismissal was to allow members to head home to campaign ahead of Election Day. Lawmakers, however, had their own theories.
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., said the early recess was to avoid having to vote on a resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which he forced to the floor. In a post on X, he called the recess the “Hegseth Holiday.”
Other members said the early departure was a sign that GOP leaders see losses as increasingly likely and want to limit the damage.
The anticipated defeat, the member said, “is why we’re leaving early” and “why we’re going back to our districts for six weeks.”
“So we could go home and campaign,” the lawmaker said.
Senate Republicans were also questioning their leadership’s decision-making in the closing weeks before Election Day.
A chunk of last week and a sizable portion of this week in the Senate is dedicated to processing the Protect College Sports Act of 2026, bipartisan legislation that would institute federal regulations for college sports, including issues like transfers, recruiting, coaching staff changes and, perhaps at the top of the list, name, image and likeness deals.
The bipartisan legislation has been a work in progress for months. But some Republicans are questioning why the conference is using its final days in session addressing college sports and not the cost of living.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said since the GOP passed its reconciliation bill last year, “all we’ve done is sit around sucking on our teeth.”
“We’re working right now on a bill to make football coaches happy,” Kennedy said. “Now I’m all for it, and I’m gonna vote for it. But I can promise you, when I go this weekend to those three states, nobody’s going to stop me and say, you know, ‘my vote is gonna be determined by how you vote on the NIL bill.’”
“That’s not the issue. The issue is cost of living,” he added.
Kennedy in particular has been clear-eyed about the challenges Republicans face this cycle. Last week, he said he was traveling to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa to help candidates fundraise and campaign in the final stretch.
But he noted the oddity of Republicans having to put increased resources in those reliably red areas.
“If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you,” Kennedy said. “Those ought to be fat guy layups for us. Now, we’re gonna win there, but the races are close.”
Of course, the poor outlook for the GOP is a function of political history. It’s customary for the president’s party to lose seats in Congress during the midterms. But the current political environment isn’t helping Republicans.
“The cost of everything is the big issue,” one of the previously quoted House Republicans said.
The lawmaker pointed to gas prices because “it affects everything” and “because you see it in your face everywhere you go.”
“There’s a gas station on every corner, so wherever you go, you see those gas prices going up, and it hits you right in the head,” the member said.
Another House Republican pointed to the historical headwinds of the midterms.
“Even on a good year, like, let’s say there was no gas problem, there’d be something else to campaign on,” this GOP lawmaker said.
The lawmaker added that, “when you’re in a midterm,” the party in power is just fighting uphill.
“No matter what, it would have been hard,” this person said.
But add in the environment, and Republicans see trouble ahead.
As Kennedy put it, the high gas prices are “uncool,” “not good” and “not gonna help.”
The fuel price issue is particularly problematic for Republicans, as voters can draw a straight line from Trump’s decision to attack Iran to those higher costs at the pump.
But Republicans said the problem was only exacerbated by Trump’s insistence that higher prices are either not a problem or a tradeoff the president is willing to accept.
“We have to recognize that yes, we have seen the prices of fuel and related products — diesel, other refined products, fertilizer — we have seen all that rise as a consequence of what we’re seeing in Iran,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told reporters. “And people are feeling it, and they don’t like it.”
“And what kind of response are we seeing out of the White House? Is there a recognition that there’s a connection here? If there is, I’m not hearing anybody enunciate it,” she said.
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