The political operation synonymous with Republican President Donald Trump’s movement has put $10 million towards advertising to boost struggling ally Ken Paxton’s chances of winning a critical U.S. Senate seat.
MAGA Inc. disclosed in a Saturday afternoon filing that it is spending $5 million to support Paxton, the impeached-and-acquitted attorney general of Texas, and another $5 million against his Democratic rival, James Talarico.
That money may only prove to be the start of an influx of cash from Trump’s orbit in what is expected to be a frenzied, and expensive, final two months before Election Day on Nov. 3.
Democrats see a potential path to taking back control of the Senate from the GOP, with the Texas Senate race being one of their major targets in the midterms. Earlier this year, Paxton defeated GOP Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff despite the longtime incumbent’s financial advantage and record of winning the seat in the state.
Trump, towards the end of that Republican infighting, spurned Cornyn for Paxton.
With Paxton as their opponent, Democrats see a route to winning a statewide race in Texas for the first time in more than 30 years. And it’s been even longer since Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in the state, with their last victory coming in 1988.
That still remains a challenge, however, even as Paxton’s controversies and electability have animated concerns surrounding his run for office in Washington. Paxton himself has won statewide races for attorney general several times, including in 2022, when he was challenged in a primary by a member of the famous Bush family.
But Republicans have shown tangible anxiety in recent days.
John Thune, the Senate Republican leader, emphasized the importance of the contest for his party in a Fox News appearance Tuesday, saying that “because Texas is such an expensive state, we’re going to need the president and his team to be engaged there and to be putting resources into that race.”
Through the end of June, the last time that the Senate campaigns in the state had to disclose their finances, Talarico’s campaign outfit had a nearly $20 million cash-on-hand advantage over Paxton’s main political operation in the race.
To flip the Senate, Democrats would likely need to keep every seat they currently have control of on the ballot this cycle, even in the competitive contests in New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia, and then pick up seats that are currently in GOP hands, including in states that have become redder in recent years.
Texas is not an easy opportunity by any means. But for Democrats to actually be able to take back control of the Senate for the final two years of Trump’s presidency, winning four seats from the contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, North Carolina, Maine or Iowa will likely be what decides who has power in the Senate come next winter.
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