President Donald Trump thumped his chest about his purported dominance of Iran on Wednesday, boasting on Truth Social that “the U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz,” and that “there is nothing Iran can do about it.” That’s because, he claimed, “they have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their ‘Leadership’ is uncertain, at best!”
You may not be surprised to hear that Trump’s swaggering declaration is nonsense. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of what it was before the war precisely because the U.S. cannot guarantee safe passage for merchant vessels, and Iran’s missiles, drones and boats are still a threat.
Trump might have thought it was particularly important to peddle the fiction that he controls the war in light of news this week that Iran is looking as strong as it ever has.
Iran seems to be mastering asymmetrical warfare.
After attending a NATO summit in Turkey in July, Trump reportedly covertly sneaked off a legacy Air Force One aircraft and flew out instead in an alternate military aircraft due to a reported Iranian assassination threat. Notably, journalists and some White House staff members who boarded the plane were not notified that Trump had been removed and effectively flew out on a decoy plane, according to The Washington Post.
It isn’t unprecedented for presidents to fly in alternate aircraft or for the president’s location to be kept secret in light of an emergency. But the Post notes that Trump’s decision to deceive the public about his location — and not disclose it afterward — highlighted “the depth of concern that U.S. security officials had about his safety leaving Turkey amid hostilities with Iran.” This elaborate move clearly contradicts Trump’s narrative that Iran’s capabilities have been obliterated. And his declining to inform the public is likely precisely because he knew the whole maneuver made him look weak, and Iran fearsome.
There’s increasing evidence that Iran is learning how to wear down U.S. munitions and break through defenses of U.S. bases in the Middle East. The New York Times published a report this week describing how Iran in July targeted three U.S. bases in Jordan for five days using advanced missiles. While almost all of the missiles were shot down, at least one broke through. Three U.S. soldiers were killed, more than 100 were injured, and several aircraft were damaged.
The cost isn’t just to U.S. life but also its arsenal, the Times reported:
The Pentagon has used more than 1,500 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war and has fewer than 1,700 interceptors left, according to two people briefed on the stockpile levels who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military details. The United States produced about 600 interceptors in all of 2025.
Worth noting: Each interceptor missile costs about $4 million and takes more than two years to make.
The U.S. has also lost about a quarter of its Reaper drone fleet during the war. Each one costs between $30 million and $50 million.
Between its ability to effectively shutter the Strait of Hormuz and to force the U.S. to burn through its high-cost advanced weaponry, Iran seems to be mastering asymmetrical warfare.
That Trump keeps backing down after threats to dramatically escalate the war against Iran shows a recognition of that reality. He just doesn’t want to admit it to the public. But that doesn’t mean that the public hasn’t caught on.
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