If history is any guide, President Donald Trump is approaching the most difficult stretch of his time in office.
Since presidential term limits took effect in 1951, second-term presidents have typically seen their power and influence begin to ebb after the congressional midterm elections, as lawmakers, donors and ambitious pols shift their attention to the next presidential race.
For most presidents, the dreaded “lame duck” period is a time to shore up their legacy through executive actions, judicial appointments or a bold foreign policy initiative.
But Trump is not like most second-term presidents. His grip on the Republican base remains unusually strong. Much of his agenda already relies on aggressive assertions of executive power rather than congressional dealmaking. And he’s temperamentally unlikely to cede the spotlight to the party’s next generation.
His repeated jokes about seeking a third term — including putting on a “Trump 2028” hat at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner — suggest he has little interest in quietly fading into the background.
Trump has already shown himself able to break with seemingly ironclad rules of politics through an unusually strong connection with his party’s base and a willingness to break with norms. The question will be whether he can continue to part with tradition by avoiding a conventional lame-duck period entirely.
Trump is likely to lose formal power even if he retains political influence.
After the midterms, Trump is likely to lose one major source of formal power even if he retains much of his political influence.
Republicans are projected to lose the House while holding only a narrow Senate majority. That would effectively end any realistic path for major legislation and restore Democrats’ subpoena power, allowing them to reopen investigations and compel senior officials to testify under oath. During Trump’s first term, divided government transformed his presidency from one focused on legislative fights to one dominated by oversight. This time, however, the effect may be more muted because his agenda already relies far more on executive action than congressional dealmaking.
The political calendar also calls on members of the president’s party to begin looking ahead toward the next presidential election, as they debate whether to push for a continuation of the current administration or shake things up with a nominee from a different wing of the party or someone from outside Washington.
But Trump might forestall that discussion entirely, as he’s made clear his intention to exercise his influence in anointing a “third term” successor. MS NOW reported that Trump’s “informal audition” for his 2028 successor appears to be over, at least for now, as JD Vance appears to have risen above the rest of the field, which included Marco Rubio.
Trump is also the first president to serve nonconsecutive terms under the modern system of presidential term limits. That means there is no historical template for how voters or party elites respond to what feels simultaneously like a second presidency and the continuation of a political era that began a decade earlier.
And while Trump’s popularity is declining rapidly among large swaths of voters, including groups that have been core to his base, new polling from YouGov shows that almost all self-described “MAGA Republicans” still support Trump, awarding him an +89 net job approval rating. That gives him a lot of power to play kingmaker in Republican primaries, although it doesn’t always pay off in the general election.
Even popular presidents struggle to handpick successors. Ronald Reagan remains the closest modern example, helping George H.W. Bush secure the nomination after leaving office with approval above 60%. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, despite similarly strong approval ratings, failed to elect Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively. Trump would be attempting the same feat from a much weaker political position.
The midterms won’t simply determine whether Democrats control the House. They’ll also reveal whether the political forces that usually weaken second-term presidents still apply to Donald Trump. If Republican candidates begin distancing themselves from him after disappointing results, the transition to the post-Trump era could begin sooner than expected. If they don’t, Trump may prove capable of extending his influence over the party long after the constitutional limits on his presidency kick in.
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