These 3 Senate races weren’t supposed to be close. That’s a warning sign for the GOP.

Months before Election Day, Democratic and Republican strategists pore over the Senate map like a game of Risk, deciding where to wage the fights that could determine control.

The top tier consists of swing states, where a closely divided electorate could be nudged either way by favorable conditions, a strong candidate or a timely infusion of cash.

The second tier consists of states where one side might have a shot if everything goes its way.

Then there’s the third tier: states that barely warrant a conversation. These are places no one expects to be close, where the opposing party hasn’t won statewide in years and there’s a thin bench of plausible candidates.

In a normal year, Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi would barely register on the Democratic Senate map. But recent polls show Democrats running surprisingly close in all three. Even Nate Silver recently called the results “a little weird.”

The odds are still stacked against Democrats sweeping through the Deep South and Great Plains. And, as everyone says this time of year, no poll matters as much as what happens at the ballot box. But Republicans are now forced to spend time and money defending states that should have been easy wins.

Here’s a closer look at why Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina have become unexpectedly competitive.

Kansas

Kansas is the clearest case. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and President Donald Trump carried it by 16 points just two years ago. But Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor and first-time candidate, has turned what should have been a sleepy re-election for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall into a real contest.

Kansas also has a history of bucking its deep-red reputation. It regularly elects Democratic governors, and in 2022, voters rejected an effort to strip abortion rights from the state constitution by nearly 20 points.

That doesn’t make Kansas a swing state. But it does reveal a sizable bloc of moderate and independent-minded voters willing to break with the GOP — one reason this race may be closer than the state’s red reputation suggests.

Mississippi

Mississippi is ruby red, but its unusually large Black electorate gives Democrats a substantial base. Black voters make up a larger share of eligible voters there than in any other state, helping keep some statewide races closer than the state’s partisan reputation might suggest.

Democrats also have an unusually well-suited candidate in Scott Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney running as a pro-law-enforcement Democrat. Colom outraised Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the most recently reported quarter and has drawn the endorsement of Pete Buttigieg, who is urging Democrats to expand their map to include Mississippi.

South Carolina

South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998. But Democrat Annie Andrews is running neck and neck with Republican Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

After her brother’s death, Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham to fill his seat, and Trump backed her through a contentious Republican primary. But polls show the race as essentially tied, turning what should have been a Republican coronation into the kind of statewide general election contest South Carolina hasn’t seen in 16 years.

South Carolina may prove to be the most candidate-specific of the three races: a newly appointed senator, a contentious primary and a still-unsettled electorate may be the key factors. Republicans can explain away the other races, too. Kansas has a moderate streak, while Mississippi has an unusually large Black electorate.

But when three supposedly safe Republican states all look competitive at once, the simplest explanation may be that Republicans are struggling more broadly.

Of course, history demands skepticism of eye-popping Democratic numbers in red states. Polls badly underestimated Republican support in 2016 and even more dramatically in 2020. But they performed considerably better in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. They may be underestimating Republican turnout now, or have some other oversight.

What is notable now is that it is already late September, and the polling has not tightened. Democrats’ advantage on the generic ballot has grown since the beginning of the month, while competitive margins in deep-red Republican territory have persisted.

None of this means Kansas, South Carolina or Mississippi is turning purple, much less blue. Democrats may not win any of these seats. But when Republicans are forced to fight in places they normally would not have to defend, that may be one of the clearest clues about the races in the rest of the country, hiding in plain sight.

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