The United States and Saudi Arabia signed a tremendously ill-advised agreement Wednesday granting the kingdom access to American nuclear know-how. The Trump administration expressed hope that the deal will funnel billions of dollars to the U.S. nuclear industry and steady a relationship that has been rocked during President Donald Trump’s heedless war against Iran. But that war, which Trump is threatening to escalate further, adds to this already bad deal the element of awful timing.
Even without Iran changing course on its nuclear program, Wednesday’s announcement is poised to roil the geopolitics of a notoriously unstable region.
Despite its shifting objectives in its war with Iran, the Trump administration has consistently said a big goal is preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. In truth, the Islamic Republic was nowhere near the “breakout” point, where a quick rush could convert a civilian nuclear program into one capable of producing weapons-grade highly enriched uranium. But the ongoing attacks from the U.S. and a potentially nuclear Saudi Arabia could change the regime’s calculus. Even without Iran changing course on its nuclear program, Wednesday’s announcement is poised to roil the geopolitics of a notoriously unstable region.
The Wall Street Journal first reported Tuesday night that Trump had signed off on the agreement, prompting a wave of concerns from nonproliferation experts about the potential ramifications. Granted, Saudi Arabia does have every right to pursue nuclear energy. The seminal 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty makes plain “the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.” A foray into nuclear power is likewise consistent with the petrostate kingdom’s push to diversify its economy.
But here’s the thing: Iran, as a party to the NPT, has that same “inalienable right.” Tehran has long maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful, and it sees enrichment capability as a source of national pride. Importantly, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that while Iran did previously seek a nuclear weapon by 2003 it had given up its pursuit. There has been no evidence presented since that has significantly altered that assessment.
Multiple U.S. administrations have demanded that Iran face the full brunt of scrutiny from the International Atomic Energy Agency, but according to The New York Times, to close the deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump “had to agree to terms that may limit international inspectors from going to any sites in the country that they think could be a pathway to diverting fuel to weapons projects.” The president also reportedly “agreed that, after a joint study with Saudi Arabia on the economics of producing nuclear fuel, the Saudis may be allowed to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium on their soil.”
The 2015 nuclear deal that then-President Barack Obama’s administration reached with Iran included Iran’s promise to never pursue a nuclear weapon. Trump has trashed that deal for years, saying Iran couldn’t be trusted. But Saudi Arabia has been more circumspect. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared in an April 2018 interview with CBS, “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
Those comments prompted Trump’s secretary of state at the time, Mike Pompeo, to demand the same kind of limitations as those the U.S. placed on the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. Under such “gold standard” agreements, the Emiratis and Taiwanese governments agreed to not enrich their own uranium. Instead, they have relied on imports from the United States and Russia.
Allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich its own uranium, or reprocess plutonium, would likely upset the regional balance of power.
Allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich its own uranium, or reprocess plutonium, would likely upset the regional balance of power. As the Times reported, a possible deal was “under discussion for years, and during the Biden administration it was envisioned as part of a broader deal that would include Saudi diplomatic recognition of Israel.” For now, Israel is the only (officially undeclared) nuclear weapons power in the region, part of its longstanding policy of deterrence against its Arab neighbors. While tensions have cooled significantly between Riyadh and Tel Aviv since their nadir during the 1960s and 70s, Israel can’t be happy at the idea of the Saudis having potential breakout capability.
More preferential treatment from the U.S. for the Saudis could also exacerbate tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslim nations. As the custodian of Mecca, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the dominant player among Sunnis; Iran has likewise positioned itself as the predominant champion of the Shiite branch of Islam. Giving so much leeway to Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy with theocratic tendencies, while denying the same to Iran, a theocracy with an illiberal democratic veneer, will likely gall Shiite communities in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
There’s a world in which this deal could be pulled off in a way that keeps proliferation threats to a minimum. Instead, it feels like Trump is offered this unbalanced deal to Saudi Arabia to keep it invested in the war against Iran. Moreover, this agreement comes at a time when the Trump administration should be figuring out how to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Instead, it’s ratcheting up tensions. Effectively negotiating with Iran was already a steep challenge, but it’s likely to become much harder now that the U.S. is helping Iran’s biggest rival obtain nuclear technology and bombing Iran for having the same.
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