Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg lead a hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary field in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
The results, released Wednesday, offer an early snapshot of a contest that remains more than two years away. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Ocasio-Cortez with 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters in the state, narrowly ahead of Buttigieg at 21%.
The poll, which surveyed 596 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire from July 15 to 20, also found that Ocasio-Cortez performed strongest among self-described socialists and progressives, while Buttigieg attracted support from a broader mix of progressives, liberals and moderates.
Both candidates have fueled (or at least have not thrown cold water on) speculation about possible 2028 presidential bids. While campaigning for progressive candidates in Democratic primaries last weekend, Ocasio-Cortez told Politico, “I mean, I can’t say that I’ve ruled it out,” when asked about running. Buttigieg struck a similar tone during a July 13 visit to Iowa, answering, “Nope,” when asked whether he would rule out a presidential campaign.
No other potential candidates in the poll reached double digits. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona received 9%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom 8%, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 6% and former Vice President Kamala Harris 5%.
Any prognostication about the 2028 race, however, comes with significant caveats: No major Democratic candidate has formally entered the race, the first nominating contests are still years away, and presidential primary polling this far in advance is not a sure indicator of electoral success, as candidates enter and exit races, gain national exposure and campaign across states.
The Democratic National Committee stripped New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation primary status for the 2024 cycle after voting to make South Carolina the party’s first nominating contest.
The change, championed by then-President Joe Biden, was intended to give a more racially diverse electorate greater influence in selecting the Democratic nominee after Biden credited South Carolina’s voters with reviving his 2020 presidential campaign. The DNC has not yet finalized its 2028 presidential nominating calendar, which leaves New Hampshire’s role in the next Democratic primary process uncertain. New Hampshire remains the first-in-the-nation primary on the GOP side.
Some critics have long cautioned that the Granite State is not fully representative of the national Democratic electorate. New Hampshire has a smaller, disproportionately white electorate relative to the party’s nationwide coalition, meaning candidates who perform well there do not necessarily maintain that advantage as the primary calendar moves to more racially and geographically diverse states.
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