President Trump may believe that “affordability” is a word “made up by the Democrats” to undermine him. But in Texas, a state Trump won by 14 percentage points less than two years ago, one of the most loyal MAGA candidates is abandoning the culture war and hopping on the affordability bandwagon.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, after ousting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, is in a tight race with state Sen. James Talarico. At first, Paxton and his allies focused on defining his opponent as “low-T Talarico” — a radical left-wing ideologue bent on sapping the testosterone from manly Texas men. But last week Paxton changed tunes, introducing an economic plan with new and expanded tax breaks for things like health care, child care and housing. The accompanying ad sounds the same notes you’ll hear from most of the Democrats running for office in this election. “Washington is making it harder than ever to get ahead,” he says in the ad. “And the American Dream is slipping away as the cost of everything from housing to health care rises.”
Wait — doesn’t Trump say we’re living in a “golden age” of boundless prosperity?
In one way, what we’re seeing from Paxton is a familiar pivot from the primary campaign to the general election. But this is unfamiliar ground for him.
What could be more of an insult to the president to whom Paxton has devoted himself than to say that even with Trump in the Oval Office delivering his glorious economic stewardship to a grateful populace — not to mention Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and every lever of power in Texas — “the American Dream is slipping away”?
In one way, what we’re seeing from Paxton is a familiar pivot from the primary campaign to the general election. But this is unfamiliar ground for him. Paxton isn’t the Republican nominee because of his empathy for Texans struggling to make ends meet. George W. Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” is nowhere to be seen. He’s the nominee because of his fierce loyalty to Trump, and because, as Texas attorney general, he has thrown himself into fights on abortion, gay rights, trans rights and prayer in schools. That this longtime culture warrior is now trying to ride the wave of economic discontent tells us a lot about how this campaign is developing.
Democratic candidates like Talarico have focused on affordability (and yes, fighting the incredibly unpopular president) in the primaries, and they’ll still be focusing on it in the general. They don’t have to pivot.
It’s not just that the economy is the central issue in the campaign, which it often is. Anger over the economy is animating voters, whether it’s about prices, a tenuous job market, or ballooning inequality. The tech industry, with which Republicans increasingly allied themselves, is increasingly the target of that anger in Texas, as everywhere else. Gov. Greg Abbott, who used to be an enthusiastic booster of locating data centers in the state, just announced a moratorium on approval for new data centers while audits are performed. The staunchest Republicans, it seems, want to portray themselves as standing alongside the little guy while they fight the power. Even if they are the power.
Paxton’s pivot comes as three new polls show Talarico ahead, more than 30 years after the last time a Democrat won statewide..
One from Texas Southern University put the race at 47% for Talarico to 45% for Paxton. Another from Texas Public Opinion Research had Talarico 45%-40%. In the unkindest cut of all, a Fox News poll showed Paxton trailing 51%-48%.
Suddenly, Paxton finds himself in a fight for which he doesn’t seem all that prepared.
Each result is within the survey’s margin of error, and there are still three months to go before Election Day. But they are the best statewide polls for any Democrat in years. To make matters worse for Paxton, Democratic donors, excited at the possibility of grabbing a seat that long seemed far out of reach, have been opening their wallets. Talarico has raised over four times as much money as opponent.
Suddenly, Paxton finds himself in a fight for which he doesn’t seem all that prepared. At a recent event meant to tout his rootin’-tootin’ toughness, Paxton stood before a group of cowboy-hatted law enforcement officials, then wilted when asked how he assembled a real estate portfolio of at least 15 houses, collectively worth millions of dollars, on a public servant’s salary. “We’re here with the sheriffs, I’d like to keep things to law enforcement,” he said, before one of his aides stepped in front of the cameras to announce, “We’re going to get out of here.” Which they did.
It’s hard to know how serious Paxton is about the package of tax credits as the key to restoring the American Dream. And his website still proudly says he’ll “carry the torch for Trump’s agenda.” But he and his campaign seem to have grasped that this year, the usual culture war fear-mongering is not going to get the job done. When the most MAGA of MAGA Republicans starts telling voters that MAGA-controlled Washington has failed them, it’s clear that everything is working to Democrats’ advantage. Even in Texas.
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