When President Donald Trump began floating a midterm convention — a way to rev up enthusiasm among shrinking-but-still-vital segments of his coalition — he had one place in mind: Las Vegas.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, with his majority on the line after two years of holding together a fractious conference, wanted something more practical. Somewhere in Pennsylvania, he argued. Philadelphia, perhaps — somewhere that might stave off losses in some of the most competitive contests in the country.
The two sides, Johnson recalled of the back and forth during a fundraiser with a group of donors last month, eventually landed on a friendly compromise: Dallas, according to two people familiar with his remarks.
The choice made sense on paper — it’s a major metropolitan hub in a state Trump won in 2024 by 14 points — and promised few logistical surprises. It was a safe pick.
Then the surprises came.
Texas stopped being safe red territory, and the two-day event will unfold alongside the most competitive Senate race the state has seen in years — a contest few Republicans expected to be fighting.
The logistics haven’t been any smoother. Trump is scheduled to speak both nights, with his evening addresses bumping up against NFL season openers — a conflict he was personally frustrated to learn about, according to a person familiar with both the planning and with Trump’s thinking, who was granted anonymity to describe private deliberations.
“It’s just poor planning,” the person said of the eleventh-hour decisions made leading up to the convention. “We’re basically just winging it.”
A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee pushed back on that characterization, predicting the Dallas event would still draw a big audience despite the scheduling snafu.
“President Trump is one of the greatest showmen in history, and we fully expect to have a spectacular showing in Dallas [and] draw a massive viewership,” RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said in a statement.
Many of the Republicans the convention was designed to help aren’t coming.
Only nine House candidates of the 21 “toss-up” races per the Cook Political Report have confirmed their attendance, just five of the nine battleground Senate candidates plan to be there and dozens more congressional candidates’ RSVPs are still outstanding, according to an MS NOW analysis. Some candidates cited scheduling conflicts, such as fundraisers or personal matters. Others said that with less than two months until Election Day, their time is better spent in their districts.
Those absences seem to reflect the anxieties rippling across the Republican Party right now, as candidates face a bind: They need Trump’s base and his massive war chest without letting the election become a referendum on a president whose approval is near a record low. Nearly half of independents told a Financial Times poll released over the weekend that a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to back a candidate.
Trump has resolved the tension in his own favor. His two primetime convention speeches will focus heavily on himself and his second-term accomplishments, according to two people familiar with the planning, granted anonymity to speak about private deliberations. White House aides and some GOP operatives argue there is no path to holding the House or the Senate without the 20% to 30% of the electorate that turns out only when Trump’s name is on the ballot.
“It’s like having ice cream and just wanting the sprinkles on top,” said a GOP strategist. “You need the vanilla or chocolate in order to put the sprinkles on, and you need that Trump base to come out and vote for you, whether you like it or not.”
“Why not increase his image on the national side of things?” said a second GOP operative, referencing Trump’s plans to air ads touting his accomplishments. “Democrats are gonna label our guys as MAGA crazy regardless.”
Whether MAGA supporters vote when Trump isn’t up for election remains an open question. Campaigning last month for Sen. Darline Graham, Trump offered a workaround.
“What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” Trump told a crowd in Myrtle Beach. “Just come and vote. It’s so important.”
In a statement to MS NOW, White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said President Trump is “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
The midterm convention has taken on such a personification of Trump that RNC Chairman Joe Gruters has dubbed it “Trumpapalooza.” It was initially billed as a fundraising vehicle for candidates in a year with no official party business to conduct, unlike a normal presidential-year convention. But for many Republicans in tight races, raising money isn’t the problem; getting Trump’s super PAC to release some of its $400 million is.
The political class has long argued about when to spend in a midterm. One camp holds that a late blitz is more efficient, dollar-for-dollar, at driving low-propensity voters to the polls. Another argues that spending early locks in lower advertising rates, builds name recognition and can help capitalize on a cash advantage while it exists.
A senior White House official dismissed the campaigns pushing outside groups to spend now. “You don’t want to waste your money. You want to spend it at the right time, and we’re going to do that,” the official said. “If you’re complaining about not having enough money, maybe you should pump up your own fundraising.”
The decision to hold back comes directly from Trump, and has less to do with conventional campaign wisdom than with self-preservation, according to a person familiar with his thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private plans. Trump is reluctant to liquidate all the money he’s raised in the midterms, this person said. He’d prefer to keep some of it for legal battles the White House expects if Democrats take the House.
“The president is the one that is dictating how this goes,” the person said. “I think, in a lot of ways, he is looking at it almost like that whole FEMA debate: States need to take care of themselves; states need to do a better job and candidates need to do a better job of basically pulling themselves up from their bootstraps.”
“There’s many things he’s thinking about legally in terms of what this money can actually go towards,” the person added. “His personal use of the money — not in his direct pocket, but the ways that money can be spent — [is] more important to him than spending it for electoral wins.”
A spokesperson for MAGA Inc. said the group will be spending heavily for midterm races over the next two months, citing Trump’s comments last week where he pledged to spend $400 million to $500 million from his super PAC. They also pushed back on the claim that Trump would reserve funds for future legal battles.
What has gone out the door at MAGA Inc. has largely gone toward Trump himself. The super PAC released its first general-election ads of the cycle last week, a $10 million buy in Texas. One 30-second spot features the president touting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act; the other splices clips of his State of the Union address with praise from UFC CEO Dana White.
The reticence puts the group well behind the pace of its predecessor, America First Action, which disbursed nearly $30 million across July, August and September 2018. MAGA Inc. raised more than $400 million between January 2025 and July 2026, according to Federal Election Commission filings, but has been slow to dole it out.
The PAC spent $1.7 million in independent expenditures to oppose state Rep. Aftyn Behn, D-Tenn., and boost Reps. Matt Van Epps, R-Tenn., and Rep. Clay Fuller, R-Ga. It also put $560,000 behind a primary challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., according to the FEC, and another $827,000 to support Graham in South Carolina’s August primary runoff.
All told, MAGA Inc. has spent roughly $31 million — about 8% of what it has raised since Trump’s second term began.
“How much of the $400 million do they touch? That I don’t know,” said a Republican operative involved with House races. “But they are certainly dedicated. Trump going out there and saying things that are unhelpful is one thing, but his political operation is fully committed, and they’ve been committed this entire cycle. They’ve been great partners and have saved us from messy primaries.”
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