Indiana state Senate races are a test of Trump’s endorsement, redistricting vote

A set of state Senate primary races in Indiana on Tuesday have turned into a test of the sway of President Donald Trump after he endorsed primary challengers to Republicans who rebuffed him on redistricting the Hoosier state last year.

Twenty-one Republicans joined 10 Democrats last year in voting against a measure that would have redrawn Indiana’s congressional map, which Trump and the White House had encouraged as another step in their push to have GOP-run states redraw their maps to help Republicans flip Democratic seats.

Even ahead of the vote, Trump vowed that state senators opposing redistricting would face strong primary challengers.

“Anybody that votes against Redistricting, and the SUCCESS of the Republican Party in D.C., will be, I am sure, met with a MAGA Primary in the Spring,” Trump wrote in a post ahead of the redistricting vote.

The president made good on his word, endorsing on his social media platform seven primary challengers to Republican state senators who are up for reelection and voted against the redistricting, as well as one candidate running for a seat held by an anti-redistricting state senator who is retiring.

“People always look for signs in state and local elections, of, is this a sign of something bigger? And so this is seen as a sign, because ordinarily, the Indiana primaries don’t attract a lot of attention, but people are looking at this as a sign of as a test for the president’s clout,” Joshua Kaplan, Professor Emeritus of political science at the University of Notre Dame, told ABC News.

But Spencer Deery, a legislator facing a Trump-endorsed primary challenger, argued that the race isn’t just about Trump’s endorsement.

“What this election is about is, about whether Indiana is going to have the freedom to elect our own leaders without the meddling of DC,” he told ABC News.

Deery is facing a challenge from the Trump-endorsed Fountain County Republican Party Chair Paula Copenhaver, whose campaign did not respond to ABC News’ interview request.

Heavy spending by national groups in hyperlocal primaries

While Trump or his allied political group MAGA Inc. do not appear to have spent money directly, aligned groups outside of Indiana such as Club for Growth and Turning Point have invested heavily in what are usually relatively sleepy primaries. Millions of dollars have been spent in primaries that Kaplan said usually see only maybe a few hundred thousand spent total.

Club for Growth, for instance, a Washington D.C.-based political action committee, is spending around $2 million on mailers and other efforts to promote the primary challengers. Asked why the group is investing so heavily in the races during the midterm election year, Club for Growth President David McIntosh told ABC News, “A party serious about governing doesn’t just play defense — it builds a deeper, stronger bench that reflects the preferences of voters.”

In December of last year, Turning Point said it would spend eight figures to help elect Trump’s chosen challengers. Two organizations affiliated with Indiana U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, American Leadership PAC and Hoosier Leadership for America, said they planned to spend $3 million. 

Federal Elections Commissions filings show American Leadership PAC spending $1.5 million with a company called Del Ray Media that has been running political advertisements on Indiana TV stations. Hoosiers for Opportunity, Prosperity and Enterprise (HOPE), a group affiliated with Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, who supported the redistricting push, gave in the hundreds of thousands to American Leadership PAC. 

That said, Indiana’s Senate Majority Campaign Committee, a campaign arm for the state Senate Republicans, is standing behind the incumbents. That group spent around $1.8 million supporting its candidates in the 2024 election cycle. 

“This is really driven from outside the state of Indiana, mostly in Washington, DC, and the money is coming from outside of Indiana as well,” state Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray, who is not up for reelection in 2026 but has been directly called out by Trump, told CNN on Monday.

Are all politics truly local?

But even with all of the national spending and Trump’s endorsement in play, Kaplan cautioned, “I don’t think voters are necessarily looking at this as a referendum on President Trump, but that’s where the national attention is. There are just a lot of local factors that affect people’s vote decisions in elections like this,” he said.

State Sen. Linda Rogers, who voted against the redistricting, told ABC News she feels “very good” about the election, even given all of the outside spending and Trump endorsing against her.

She said she’s not taking the election for granted but pointed to having lived in the community for decades.

“So when I see people on the street, people are wishing me luck, giving me hugs, probably more hugs than I’ve ever had before,” she said. 

Her primary challenger, political newcomer and anesthesiologist Brian Schmutzler, told ABC News he also does not see the race definitively as a referendum on Trump or redistricting.

He called Trump’s endorsement “surreal” and “an honor,” but also added, “All politics is local, right? So certainly people don’t only talk about redistricting. I think the president’s endorsement was critical. I think it was very powerful … But on top of that we’re talking about local issues as well.” 

Rogers, who criticized some of the advertising against her from outside groups that she said was misleading and mischaracterized her record as a legislator, said she stands behind her vote against redistricting — and also still supports Trump, despite the president endorsing against her.

“I do [still support him]. He made that threat that he was going to do that,” Rogers said of Trump’s promise to boost primary challengers. 

“And I made good on my promise to the people of the district that I would support them, and I still support President Trump, who’s doing what he thinks he should do, but I’ve seen a lot of the great things that President Trump has done, and certainly I am not one to hold grudges … I think we all know we don’t always agree with everyone on every single policy, but we have to work together.”

Bray, asked on CNN if he had a message for Trump, said, “I don’t have a message for the president … as a caucus, we were fairly evenly split, but we decided ultimately that [redistricting] wasn’t the right thing, it wasn’t the right way for Indiana to move forward.”

He later was emphatic: “No regrets.”