On Thursday afternoon, a reporter asked Donald Trump whether he believed he’s “losing control” of congressional Republicans. “I don’t know,” the president replied. “I really don’t know.”
All things considered, he probably ought to know, given the fact that he’s confronting a problem of his own making. The Wall Street Journal reported last week on an emerging faction on Capitol Hill that has the potential to make a real difference:
While the president has made clear he can make or break the career of any Republican, he is also creating a class of vanquished lawmakers still in office. Republicans and aides on Capitol Hill have begun referring to a new “YOLO caucus” of outgoing senators who have little left to lose in bucking Trump.
The Associated Press published a related report, adding, “The YOLO caucus is in session.” (“YOLO” is slang for “you only live once.”)
The Republicans joining the YOLO caucus are no doubt aware of the fact that they’re poking an erratic bear and inviting furious reactions from the president. The problem for the White House is that these GOP members just don’t seem to care.
Some of them, such as Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, are retiring, so they no longer fear the electoral consequences of standing up to the White House. Others, such as Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, have already lost to Trump-backed challengers, so they’re suddenly unburdened by intraparty pressures.
Others still, such as Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, are running for re-election in highly competitive states and districts, so they actually see some benefit in presidential condemnations, since they help create some distance between themselves and the woefully unpopular Republican in the Oval Office.
To be sure, we’re not talking about a lot of congressional Republicans, most of whom continue to act as if they’re White House employees instead of members of co-equal branch of government, but given the narrow GOP majorities in both chambers, members of the YOLO caucus have a unique opportunity to start influencing legislative outcomes on Capitol Hill, if they choose to take full advantage of the circumstances.
Just last week, we saw some compelling evidence of this, with several Republicans:
- rejecting the administration’s $1.776 billion compensation fund (widely panned by members of both parties as a “slush fund”)
- opposing public funds related to the White House ballroom project,
- ignoring Trump’s calls to fire the Senate parliamentarian,
- voting with Democrats on a war powers resolution related to the war in Iran
- denouncing Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton in Texas’ Senate race
- and rejecting the White House’s call for cuts to federal housing programs.
Though the circumstances were qualitatively different, if we widened the aperture a bit, the president facing intraparty pushback over his negotiations with Iran is arguably part of the same phenomenon.
The conventional wisdom suggests that Trump’s control over congressional Republicans is complete and unrelenting. The president barks orders and GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill obey, motivated by some combination of fear, partisan allegiance, loyalty and ideological agreement.
But with the president’s approval rating sinking to unusually low levels, and YOLO caucus members feeling indifference about the president’s wrath, Trump’s grip appears to be slipping.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.
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