Democrats are looking competitive ahead of the midterms — and it has the GOP spooked

This is an adapted excerpt from the Sept. 15 episode of “All In with Chris Hayes.”

With less than 50 days until Election Day and the last primaries of the season now behind us, the country has decisively pivoted toward the general. While things could certainly tighten between now and Nov. 3, it is looking like Democrats will be competitive in a lot of unexpected places.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats hold leads — sometimes double-digit leads — on basically every single issue: healthcare, immigration, the deficit, the economy, the cost of living, foreign wars, Israel-Palestine. It appears voters trust the Democrats more on basically everything (by a significant margin, as well).

The only issue where respondents favored Republicans was on artificial intelligence, where President Donald Trump’s party holds a meager 2-point lead, which is well within the margin of error.

None of this is surprising. Trump is escalating the war on Iran with no end in sight. Some in his administration are reportedly saying privately the war could drag into 2029. Polling shows voters were already skeptical of the war when it started seven months ago, and they like it even less now.

Especially considering that gas prices and diesel prices are way up. Diesel is averaging over $6 a gallon for the first time ever. In California, where much of your produce may be grown, it is well over $8. That, in turn, makes everything else more expensive because many of your groceries, for example, arrive by truck.

It probably won’t come as much surprise to you, then, to learn that the same New York Times/Siena poll found Democrats with an 8-point lead in the generic ballot. Other recent surveys have had them up by as much as 11 points. In an environment like that, what you start to see is Democrats competing in places where no one thought they could.

Take Alabama — one of the states where Trump ordered Republicans to redraw their congressional districts to benefit their party. Alabama was able to disenfranchise Black Democratic voters by changing its congressional districts to favor white Republicans instead.

That was supposed to be the case in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures had his district redrawn to favor the other party. But that is not what we are seeing so far. In fact, the nonpartisan Sabato Crystal Ball recently shifted that race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”

Now, anything can happen. I am not saying this seat is a lock for Democrats. But winning elections nationwide means having to prioritize where you spend money and resources, and based on what we’re seeing, it is clear that Republicans are going to need to play defense in a lot of races they were not expecting to.

Take Montana: It should be a cakewalk for Republicans. Trump carried the state by 20 points in 2024. And yet there is now a dead heat in the state’s western district House race. Outgoing Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke won it handily two years ago by about 8 points, but in a very blue environment without an incumbent, it could now be in play.

The same is true in deep-red Nebraska, where Trump got nearly 60% of the vote last time. And yet, a new outside poll showed independent Dan Osborn leading incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts by 4 points.

That might be an outlier, but Republicans have already reacted. On Tuesday, a new super PAC tied to the Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund dumped $1 million into the race to prop up Ricketts — which, again, is money that could be going elsewhere.

There even seems to be a real race brewing in Kansas, of all places, a Trump +16 state. That is in part because the incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is … really going through it.

Last week, the Times reported that during his lengthy career as an OBGYN, Marshall sued more than 700 patients with outstanding bills. Most of them lived in rural Barton County, a poor area with high uninsurance rates. At least two of the suits resulted from patients who suffered miscarriages and needed surgery. The bills ranged from mid four-figures to just about $100. In the end, 81 of the patients were arrested for missing court dates.

One lawyer who represented Marshall in many of these cases defended those arrests as necessary to ensure debtors followed court orders, adding that the senator wasn’t involved in decisions about the arrests.

But it is not a great look. One woman told the Times she was arrested three times over an unpaid cesarean section bill of about $4,000. She tried to get on a payment plan but said the interest was too much to keep up with, and it was often a choice between paying her electric bill or her medical debt.

Again, this is not to say Democrats will win all — or even any — of these races, but they are competitive, far more competitive than they should be. And it’s clear that already has Republicans spooked.

Allison Detzel contributed.

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