President Donald Trump’s ban on Canadian dairy imports is meant to force Ottawa to open its market to American milk. But Canada regulates its dairy industry in a way that shields its own farmers from foreign price shocks — which, industry groups say, leaves American farmers more exposed than Canadian ones.
Trump signed the proclamation on Tuesday, banning all Canadian dairy products — along with Canadian alcohol and motorcycles — effective Sept. 29. It landed the same day Canada imposed a 50% tariff on American dairy ingredients such as whey, casein and milk proteins and a 25% tariff on U.S. cheeses, in retaliation for tariffs Trump placed on Canada in August after trade talks between the two countries collapsed.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said his proclamation would end what he called the “Canadian Trade Scam,” citing Canada’s dairy supply management system — which caps imports and sets domestic prices — as the reason for the ban.
That same system is what blunts the ban’s force, said Tim Gibbons, executive director of the National Family Farm Coalition. Because supply management protects Canadian producers from price swings driven by foreign trade policy, he said, the fallout from the policy is likely to hit American farmers instead.
“U.S. farmers are trapped in a failed free trade system that works against their best interests,” Gibbons told MS NOW in a statement. “Our government’s continued insistence on weaponizing tariffs offers little benefit to U.S. dairy farmers and consumers alike, with limited impact to Canadian dairy farmers who are protected from volatile trade policy by their dairy supply management system.”
Americans stand to lose twice, said Darin Von Ruden, president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union: lower prices for farmers and higher prices for consumers at the stores.
“Any time that you get a market disruption, it usually lowers the price to the farmer, but also gives the middleman, the multinational corporations, the ability to raise the price on consumers,” said Von Ruden. “It’s really going to cause farmers to get lower prices and consumers to pay more for products that they’re currently buying at a good level.”
Wisconsin is the nation’s top dairy state, and like much of American agriculture, it has taken a beating in recent decades. The number of dairy farmers in the state has dropped from around 43,000 in 1990 to just under 5,000 today, Von Ruden said. Trump’s ban compounds existing challenges farmers face, including the cost of diesel fuel — which hit an all-time high this week of nearly $6 per gallon nationally — and price volatility.
Trump’s premise that Canada has shut out American producers is also disputed. U.S. producers exported about $1.31 billion in milk, cheese, butter and other dairy products to Canada in 2025, while the U.S. bought about $432 million worth of Canadian dairy, according to Agriculture Department data — a surplus of roughly $880 million in the U.S.’ favor.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USCMA, is at the center of the U.S. and Canada’s trade disagreements. The trade deal, signed during Trump’s first term, allowed for the continuation of Canada’s dairy supply management system.
Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., a co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Dairy Caucus, told MS NOW that Trump’s proclamation is a “knee-jerk economic escalation” that will raise prices for consumers and increase the burden on U.S. farmers.
“President Trump’s latest tariffs on Canadian imports will ultimately hurt farmers and small businesses by increasing production costs, closing markets, and inviting further retaliation,” DelBene said, adding that legitimate concerns about Canadian dairy imports should be dealt with through established trade agreements like the UMSCA, not tariffs.
Not every U.S. industry group faults the White House. The National Milk Producers Federation, which represents some of the largest dairy producers in the U.S., placed the blame squarely on Canada, telling MS NOW in a statement that the country has failed to address “broken” elements in the USMCA in addition to abandoning its August trade talks with the Trump administration.
“Instead of staying at the table to hash out a way forward, Canada unfortunately chose to pursue retaliation,” Shawna Morris, the group’s executive vice president, said in a statement. “We urge Canada to stop stalling and deliver the reforms that will resolve this dairy market access dispute for good.”
The effect on multinational companies is less clear. Danone North America is a major producer of coffee creamers based in White Plains, New York, and has production facilities in both Ontario and Quebec. The company did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment.
In addition to dairy products, Trump’s proclamation places bans on Canadian motorcycles and alcohol, and like dairy, the U.S. has historically been a net exporter of those goods to its northern neighbor. Canada made up about 5% of Harley-Davidson’s total retail sales in 2025, part of the $112.5 million worth of bikes bought by Canadians last year, according to UN Comtrade data. However, Forbes reported that sales have slumped slightly in the first half of 2026 amid trade tensions.
American alcohol has fared worse, as U.S. brands remain banned or boycotted in many Canadian provinces. Even when Alberta and Saskatchewan lifted boycotts on American alcohol imports earlier this year, Canadian retailers ordered 65% less U.S. wine than before.
It marked a “permanent erosion” in Canadian market share, Wendong Zhang, an associate professor of economics at Cornell University, told MS NOW, which can arise when Canadian consumers begin to rely more heavily on domestic products, as opposed to U.S. imports.
Von Ruden fears dairy is headed in the same direction: another once-reliable foreign market lost because the U.S. federal government insisted on “sticking their nose into the marketplace.”
“Our markets are being destroyed,” he said.
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