For months, President Donald Trump has weighed options for next steps in the war with Iran, with no clear frontrunner for how to resolve the five months-long conflict.
Possible military actions have included mounting a large-scale bombing campaign to further degrade Iran’s missile capabilities, targeting the underground Iranian nuclear facility Pickaxe Mountain, or seizing Kharg Island to control most of Iran’s oil supply.
On Friday, CBS News reported that the U.S. and Israel were preparing to mount a large-scale attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure in the coming days.
But a new possibility emerged during this week’s Oval Office meeting between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: implementing a land blockade to shut off Iran’s ability to bring in supplies through its border crossings.
“What if you just block the land?” a senior Israeli official said of the idea Netanyahu proposed to combine both military and economic pressure to isolate the Iranian government.
“Suppose Iran cannot bring anything in, cannot take anything out,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss close-door conversations with Trump.
Netanyahu suggested cutting off land routes and supplies to Iran as a potential escalatory measure, the senior Israeli official said, arguing economic pressure can work to isolate Tehran— if coupled with the military pressure of a fully enforced land and sea blockade.
The 93 million people living in Iran rely on cross-border imports of grains, vehicle parts, electronics, and other goods. Such a blockade would be a massive disruption to daily life inside Iran.
With Iran’s total land border stretching 3,662 miles, it would also be hard to implement.
“The Commander-in-Chief has all options at his disposal,” a White House official said in a statement when asked about the likelihood of a land blockade. A defense official told MS NOW the Pentagon would not speculate on potential future operations.
“I think this is what’s been missing,” retired CENTCOM deputy commander Adm. Robert Harward told MS NOW of a possible land blockade. “Diplomatic and financial or economic pressures are much more effective than military action, and if you tie them all together and synchronize them, you’ve got the best of all worlds, a whole of government effort driven by the president’s objectives.”
But enforcing such a blockade would be challenging.
It would require the seven nations neighboring Iran — Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan — to agree to shut their borders. Without their cooperation, the U.S. would face having to use military force, with anyone moving through “kill zones” becoming targets, Harward said.
Closing off land borders could also make it more difficult for military assistance from Russia and China to enter Iran. Also, Harward said, choking off food imports, vehicle parts, electronics, and other supplies essential for survival could cripple Iran’s economy. But it is unclear as to whether that would be enough to spur an uprising to topple the Islamic Republic’s leadership.
In a February situation room meeting leading up to the war, Netanyahu argued to Trump that a joint attack against Iran “could advance the probability” that Iranians would rise up against the government, the senior Israeli official said – but certain conditions did not materialize.
Now, Netanyahu is encouraging the U.S. to take more steps to deal an economic death blow to the Islamic Republic, the Israeli official said.
“I think that complete isolation and complete financial deprivation drives regime change as much as any of the military activity,” Harward said.
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