The Democratic National Committee is about to make a major blunder regarding the 2028 election by voting soon to formally designate South Carolina as the site of the party’s first presidential primary.
The deliberation last week by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee yielded 26 votes for South Carolina, 19 for Nevada and four for New Hampshire. Iowa, whose caucuses had long provided the first presidential test, lost its coveted spot after state Democrats botched the vote counting process in 2020. But cementing South Carolina’s status as first in the nation, a shift from its longtime role as first in the South, risks locking Democrats into the wrong focus.
Diversity is among the Democratic Party’s greatest strengths, but it’s not what early primaries are about.
While wrangling now over the 2028 calendar might seem premature, exploratory grass-roots campaigning by potential contenders will begin in about six months. Sending them to the right proving ground is pivotal to selecting the most viable Democratic candidate.
The central argument in South Carolina’s favor is that it is home to many Black voters, a critical bloc for decades in a winning Democratic coalition. The Palmetto State’s share of Black residents, at just over 25%, is roughly double the U.S. average.
In choosing South Carolina, which would hold its primary on Jan. 22, 2028, followed on Feb. 1 by Nevada (where some 31% of the population is Hispanic), the Democratic committee is focusing on the nature of the electorate. The value of the first primary, however, is less about finding out what voters think than it is about learning how candidates perform.
It’s worth remembering what happened in 2020. Joe Biden flopped in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his campaign was resuscitated when Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn endorsed him in South Carolina, helping Biden win that state’s primary and ultimately his party’s nomination.
Four years later, a grateful Biden, then president, persuaded the DNC to move South Carolina up to first on its 2024 primary calendar. Biden won there handily and went on to clinch his party’s nomination again before the unraveling that eventually had former Vice President Kamala Harris replace him on the ticket without the benefit of being tested in primaries.
The ideal lead-off state must have a small population, distributed across easily reachable communities. Local media opportunities need to be focused and affordable. It also helps to have a citizenry that values retail politics. In sum, a state like Iowa.
I spent considerable time in 2019 and 2020 traipsing around Iowa, covering the Democratic presidential candidates for USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. What I observed was an old-fashioned approach in which candidates were compelled to visit all 99 counties — a rite of passage known as a “Full Grassley,” in honor of Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who pioneered the practice. Many Iowans I encountered would not commit unless they had shaken the candidate’s hand — at least twice.
That sounds quaint, but it’s remarkably revealing. It’s a political version of the NFL combine, where prospective pro football players are tested on skills such as speed and agility long before they get on an actual playing field.
Much is made of the fact that Iowa’s population is roughly 85% white and less progressive than larger coastal states. Yet, Iowa Democrats picked the party’s eventual nominee in all but one presidential contest over the past quarter-century: Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. (Their record is stronger than that of their Republican counterparts.) The only Democratic “miss” came in 2020, when Iowans chose a brilliant openly gay man, Pete Buttigieg, while rejecting the safe choice in Biden.
New Hampshire has many of the same virtues for early primaries as Iowa, but its overlap with the Boston media market diminishes its appeal for advertising.
In announcing plans for 2028, Democratic officials Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt Jr. boasted that they had come up with “the most diverse calendar Democrats have ever had for an open nominating contest.” Diversity is among the Democratic Party’s greatest strengths, but it’s not what early primaries are about.
It’s a grueling process. But it’s historically one of the best methods of identifying the strongest candidates — or at least weeding out the ones who can’t handle the challenge.
Once Donald Trump soundly defeated Harris to win a second term, Democrats started counting the days to 2028. Nothing will matter — not diversity or, say, socialism — if the White House can’t be retaken.
South Carolina’s presentation to the DNC rules committee emphasized Black representation, voting-rights symbolism and the importance of the party’s most loyal constituency. Iowa’s pitch focused on retail politics, affordability and organizational testing.
The full DNC is scheduled to take up the matter on Aug. 13. It will have to decide if the six “early window” states, with primaries before Super Tuesday, will match last week’s recommendation: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia, in that order.
For decades most aspiring presidential candidates, especially those with modest name recognition nationally, have focused on the first state, with some effort in the second state. It’s a grueling process. But it’s historically one of the best methods of identifying the strongest candidates — or at least weeding out the ones who can’t handle the challenge.
The thing about Iowa, which the DNC would be wise to return to the early window, is that it mirrors what Frank Sinatra crooned about New York: If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.
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