From an American perspective, there’s very little to like about the White House’s new nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. For example, it’s likely to set off a regional arms race in a part of the world that needs more stability, not less. As a New York Times analysis explained, the agreement left Donald Trump with the challenge of convincing the world “that in loosening the nuclear standards for one close ally, he is not ushering in a new age of proliferation, especially in a region of the world already on fire.”
What’s more, the same policy is poised to make nuclear negotiations with Iran harder, not easier.
“Who wins from this deal?” Dan Drezner, a political scientist at Tufts University, asked in a published analysis of the agreement. “Well, certainly Saudi Arabia, which is the rare ally the Trump administration has not alienated. As the U.S. firm that will provide a lot of nuclear technology, Westinghouse is also a big winner. And … that’s pretty much it.”
The day after the deal was signed, however, the American president apparently decided to alter its terms. MS NOW reported as part of the network’s liveblog coverage:
Trump said his administration’s agreement to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program, which could potentially open the door to uranium enrichment on Saudi soil, is contingent on the kingdom normalizing relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords.
Riyadh has not agreed to the new condition, which could present significant obstacles to the deal, as Saudi Arabia has long refused to join the diplomatic agreements until there is a clear and formalized path to Palestinian statehood.
To the surprise of nearly everyone, the Republican published an item to his social media platform that explicitly said the deal “is totally subject” to Saudi Arabia embracing the Abraham Accords.
In effect, Trump and his team negotiated a deal, signed the deal, and then said the deal was contingent on Saudi Arabia establishing normalized diplomatic relations with Israel — a provision that was not included in the agreement or the White House’s original announcement related to the policy.
As MS NOW went on to report, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters during a Thursday morning briefing, “Yes, this deal with Saudi Arabia, the energy deal, is contingent on this condition, as far as the president is concerned.” (The words “as far as the president is concerned” were doing a lot of work in that sentence.)
She added that Trump has not spoken with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, about the new condition. Leavitt nevertheless concluded, in reference to Saudi officials, “If they don’t join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off.”
At this point, it’s difficult to speculate as to how and why the president decided to change — or at least try to change — an already completed deal, but there’s no reason to assume that Riyadh will simply go along with Trump’s new terms. (In May, Trump said it should be “mandatory” for Saudi Arabia, among other countries, to join the Abraham Accords. The demand went entirely ignored.)
Complicating matters, the Times noted that Joe Biden embraced a very similar policy during his presidency, “making nuclear cooperation part of a larger diplomatic understanding that changes the dynamics of the Middle East.” Trump rejected the idea of coupling nuclear policy with regional diplomacy, only to reverse course without any meaningful explanation.
It’s entirely possible that the Republican will quietly back down and agree to the terms his administration already negotiated, generating a new round of “TACO Trump” chatter, but if the president follows through on his new posture, it might very well prove to be the best of all possible outcomes, since it would derail a policy that deserves to be rejected anyway.
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