With 15 weeks remaining before Election Day 2026, and even less time before early voting begins in many states nationwide, plenty of political observers are keeping a close eye on the latest polls, looking for hints about what’s likely to happen. That said, Republicans looking for reason for optimism probably ought to avoid the latest Fox News poll. From the network’s summary:
Several findings in the latest Fox News Poll show voters are unhappy and want major change, which bodes well for Democrats in November: President Donald Trump’s job approval remains near a record low, more Democrats are motivated to vote, Republicans join Democrats and independents in rating the economy negatively, and 4 in 10 voters want “dramatic” or “revolutionary” change.
When respondents were asked which party’s candidates they would support if the midterm elections were today, Democrats enjoyed a 7-point advantage, 53% to 46%, up from a 5-point edge in April. Just as notable as the margin is the strength of the Democratic support: Fox News’ report on the data noted that 53% is “the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996.”
Similarly, the same survey found Democrats with a 9-point advantage on which party can be trusted to do a better job on the economy, 54% to 45%. The last time Democrats enjoyed that kind of advantage on the economy was 20 years ago — shortly before Democrats took back the House and Senate in the 2006 midterm elections.
But perhaps most striking of all was the Democratic advantage on one of the GOP’s signature issues: Fox News’ poll asked, “Which political party — the Democrats or the Republicans — do you think would do a better job on immigration?” The results showed 50% sided with Democrats, while 49% sided with Republicans.
Some might see this and see the Democratic edge as incredibly narrow, which is true. But the broader context is everything: Two years ago at this time, immigration was seen as the Democrats’ top vulnerability, to the point that Republicans wanted to talk about little else. Now, however, a major independent poll actually shows the GOP trailing on the issue.
There’s ample room for speculation about what’s behind the shift. Maybe Trump and his party are causing such a backlash that many voters are just turning to Democrats on practically everything. Maybe many Americans are repulsed by the enforcement tactics adopted by Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other agencies, which have taken a toll on public attitudes. It’s likely a combination of factors.
But the bottom line remains the same: GOP officials and candidates saw immigration as an issue that served them well ahead of Election Day 2024. Two years later, the Republicans’ advantage has evaporated.
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