Two recent polls show that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are dropping as low as they ever have for him. But more striking still are signs that his hardcore base is dissipating — which could affect turnout in the midterm elections and render the MAGA brand less potent over time.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of adults conducted between Aug. 14-17 found that 33% approved of Trump’s performance and 64% disapproved. As Reuters noted in its write-up of the survey, “Trump’s approval rating, down from 35% in a poll that closed earlier this month and lower than at any point in his current term, has now tied the lowest level of his prior term reached in December 2017.”
There are signs that the accumulated discontent is not just hurting Trump with Americans overall but his most loyal supporters.
A big driver of that decline is Trump’s failed war on Iran and the spike in oil prices it triggered. That has not only made gas more expensive, but it has also caused a spike in food prices as well. Another Reuter/Ipsos poll, conducted two weeks ago, found that “voters prefer Democrats over Republicans as better stewards of the economy for the first time in about a decade.” It appears that Trump’s record, including the disaster in Iran, has managed to erase the huge advantage Republicans held at the start of his second term on public perception of managing the economy after inflation hurt Democrats under Joe Biden’s presidency.
There are signs that the accumulated discontent is not just hurting Trump with Americans overall but his most loyal supporters. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, the share of Americans who strongly approve of his tenure is just 14% . That number — a useful proxy for Trump’s most devoted base — has shrunk 12 percentage points since February 2025.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in August had similar findings. Like the Reuters/Ipsos poll, this one also found that Trump’s approval was 33% — “the smallest share to ever approve of Trump’s job handling in any Economist / YouGov Poll across both of Trump’s terms.” It also found him at a record-high 63% disapproval.
And that survey also showed Trump hemorrhaging die-hard followers. YouGov pointed out that Trump has “hit a new low for this term in the share of Americans who strongly approve of his job performance: 17%.” Its survey found that less than half of Republicans hold that view.
Trump’s plunging approval ratings and his loosening grip on his base might explain part of why his endorsed candidates haven’t been performing as well in recent GOP primaries. But more consequentially, dissatisfaction with him could mean that GOP voters are less likely to turn out at the midterms. It’s typically a tough contest for an incumbent party, so if the president’s base is burnt out on him or defecting, that could make the elections even harder to win. And in a more specific sense, if Trump’s base is souring on him, it throws a wrench in his entire theory of winning elections. He doesn’t rely on persuasion and building broad coalitions, but rather on turbocharging turnout among sympathizers and capitalizing on anger at the status quo. That entire strategy is in trouble.
The post Why Trump’s plummeting approval ratings are even worse than they look appeared first on MS NOW.
