When Republicans redrew congressional districts in a number of states over the last year, they hoped their efforts would maximize GOP House seats and minimize the number of contests where Democrats could feasibly win.
But now, with just weeks to go before Election Day, Republicans are suddenly finding a host of deep red districts in play — and President Donald Trump’s political operation is now spending millions to defend Republicans in a dozen districts that the GOP redrew to favor Trump by at least nine percentage points.
In fact, if these maps existed in 2024, Trump would have carried these districts by an average of 12 points.
Records reviewed by MS NOW show that so far, No Going Back PAC — a new super PAC tied to Trump’s political operation — has already invested approximately $6 million in redrawn districts where the Republican has a roughly double-digit advantage based on Trump’s 2024 performance.
It’s the latest sign of a larger problem for Republicans: The midterms are shaping up to be a potential disaster for the GOP.
Polling suggests the maps that were designed to protect the Republican majority from a blue wave don’t appear to be safe, and Republicans are now compelled to spend in districts that should be solidly red.
No Going Back PAC and MAGA, Inc. — the primary Trump-affiliated campaign organization — did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment on their spending decisions.
But the biggest investment among the ruby red redrawn districts so far is in Florida’s 25th Congressional District, where Federal Election Commission filings show No Going Back PAC spending more than $2 million on a combination of TV ads and mailers.
In that district, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is facing off against Republican Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton. While Florida’s 25th district backed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by approximately 5 points, Florida Republicans redrew the map to turn the area into a Trump +9.2 district.
And yet, despite the new district lines, Moskowitz looks like he could pull off the upset. On Tuesday, Fox News moved its rating of the race from “Toss-up” to “Lean D.”
In a statement, Moskowitz mocked No Going Back PAC’s investment. “The American way of life has become unaffordable,” Moskowitz said. “The Trump administration knows this, so their PAC will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to run ads to change the topic.”
“But,” Moskowitz added, “the bill always comes due at the end of the month.”
Singer’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Of course, Texas Republicans first kicked off the mid-decade redistricting war — at Trump’s urging — last summer. Other states followed suit, including North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, with state lawmakers crafting new maps aimed at advantaging the GOP.
Democrats responded in kind, with redistricting initiatives in California and Virginia.
On the GOP side of the battle, however, Republicans are still having to spend in these districts to support the GOP candidates. For example, federal filings show that Trump-affiliated groups have poured in more than $1 million in Texas’s 35th Congressional District, which backed Harris by more than 30 points in 2024. (The district now favors Trump by about 10 points, after Republicans spread out the GOP advantage elsewhere.)
But it’s not just districts in Texas that became more Democratic.
No Going Back PAC is investing more than $500,000 on a TV ad in Texas’ 34th Congressional District, which was redrawn into a Trump +10 district.
And the group is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on campaign mailers and other voter outreach efforts across districts like Alabama’s 2nd (Trump +14.3), Florida’s 22nd (Trump +10.6), North Carolina’s 1st (Trump +11.6) and Ohio’s 15th (Trump +10).
In a statement, the spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee accused Republicans of “running scared.”
“By lighting their money on fire almost entirely in defensive districts and in places Trump won by double digits two years ago, MAGA Inc. is signaling that vulnerable House Republicans are in deep trouble and poised to lose,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said.
A spokesperson for House Majority PAC —which also works to elect Democrats to the House — argued in a statement that “strong” candidates are expanding the “battlefield deep into Trump territory.”
“Now Trump and Republicans are being forced to spend millions defending deep-red districts, including seats they literally redrew to make safer for themselves earlier this cycle,” spokesperson Katarina Flicker said. “This spending is the clearest evidence yet that Democratic recruitment has fundamentally changed the House map.”
Although the spending is just the latest sign that Republicans could be in trouble come November, GOP operatives downplayed the significance of the support.
While true that every dollar spent in what should be a safe Republican district can’t go to help a more vulnerable Republican, the GOP has a sizable money advantage this fall that makes these spending decisions less consequential. There is, mathematically, just more money to go around for Republicans.
In a statement, a spokesperson for the House GOP’s campaign arm — the National Republican Congressional Committee, which legally cannot be involved in the Trump-affiliated PAC’s spending decisions — sought to put GOP-aligned campaign spending in broader context, casting Democrats as broadly outspent in competitive districts across the board.
“Republicans have air superiority,” NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement.
“House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have,” he said.
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