The main super PAC backing House Democrats is making a two-part case to supporters: The party can win seats deeper into Trump territory than it expected at the start of the year, but it will only get the chance if it closes a major fundraising gap with President Donald Trump’s allies.
“We are seeing positive data coming back from districts where Donald Trump won by 10% or more in 2024,” House Majority PAC wrote in a new memo obtained by MS NOW.
But the memo also carries a warning about a dynamic that could shape the final two months of the election.
“With MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk holding more than $500 million cash-on-hand,” the memo reads, “we’re limited in our ability to go deeper into the map and win more seats.”
Citing a mix of public and internal polling from 14 House districts, the memo argues that Democrats are competitive well beyond the frontline seats that have anchored the party’s path to the majority.
Republicans hold a razor-thin House majority; Democrats need a net gain of roughly three seats to take control.
In the memo, HMP points to opportunities like Montana’s 1st District, which Trump carried by 11 points in 2024, and New York’s 21st District, which he won by about 21.
In Colorado’s 3rd District, which Trump won by roughly 10 points, an internal poll from Democrat Dwayne Romero shows him one point behind incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd. In North Carolina’s 3rd District, which Cook Political Report rates “solidly Republican,” HMP’s own polling puts Democratic challenger Raymond Smith Jr. three points behind Republican Rep. Greg Murphy. And in Kentucky’s 6th District, which Trump carried by about 15 points, a poll shared by the group shows Democrat Zach Dembo one point ahead of Republican Ralph Alvarado.
All three surveys carry a margin of error of at least four percentage points — meaning the races could prove far less competitive in November than HMP suggests.
And of note: Internal polls, which HMP invokes in reference to several of the contests on their list, should be treated with some skepticism, as they often can be released to help reinforce a campaign’s narrative about the trajectory of the race.
With just over two months until Election Day, Democrats are voicing cautious optimism about the midterms, tempered by one large caveat: the prospect of Trump and his allies using their cash advantage to blanket these districts with spending in the closing stretch.
The early signs are already there.
MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, has a war chest of approximately $400 million. In the final days of South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary, the group opened the spigot to help get Trump’s preferred candidate — Sen. Darline Graham — across the finish line. This week, The Atlantic reported that MAGA Inc. is expected to launch an ad blitz soon — one aimed in part at trying to highlight Trump’s achievements. Most of the money, though, is still expected to flow to key House and Senate races.
The world’s richest man is preparing to spend, too. Last month, The New York Times reported that Elon Musk has authorized his own super PAC to spend $100 million to $120 million to elect Republicans.
HMP’s summary of their own memo reads as a response: Now’s the time to help.
“With additional resources in the final stretch,” the memo reads, “HMP can invest in these races and help ensure we elect the largest possible Democratic majority.”
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