On the day Donald Trump announced the start of the war in Iran, the average price American consumers paid for a gallon of gas was $2.98. In May, as combat operations continued and the Strait of Hormuz closed, prices climbed past $4.50 a gallon.
It was around this time that anxieties among Republican officials and candidates reached new levels. The party was already facing headwinds ahead of the midterm elections, and the GOP’s troubles were poised to be even worse as angry voters, who were already struggling with affordability and the cost of living, weighed their electoral choices.
Last month, however, offered some modest relief — both for consumers and the president’s party — as gas prices eased and the United States and Iran embraced a ceasefire. The developments renewed hopes that prices might yet move closer to where they were in February by the time Election Day 2026 rolled around.
Time will tell what people are paying at the pump in 15 weeks, but for now, relief in mid-June has given way to discouragement in mid-July. The New York Times reported:
After a brief respite, the price of gas is back on the rise. On Monday, the average price at the pump in the United States climbed to $4 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club, as the war with Iran reignited, halting most shipping and pinching already-depleted global refineries.
The price has surged 13 cents higher from a week ago, when it averaged $3.87 across the country.
An Axios report added, “As gas prices go, so may GOP hopes in the midterms.”
Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on ABC News’ “This Week” and was asked about the latest developments. “Gasoline prices today are more than one dollar a gallon cheaper than they were four years ago under the Biden administration,” he argued.
The Cabinet secretary’s reference to “four years ago” gave away the game: Joe Biden’s presidency wrapped up a year and a half ago, but there was a price spike in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Wright apparently wants people to compare Biden-era data to Trump-era data, though he’s playing a tiresome shell game that’s intended to obscure a basic fact: Americans are paying more at the pump now than when Biden exited the White House.
For his part, Trump doesn’t seem to know what to say or do. In late June, the Republican president published an item on his social media platform, effectively begging Big Oil to lower prices. (That didn’t work.)
Last week, he went on to tell Fox Business, “I think oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo. Goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit. And when this is over, oil is gonna drop like a rock.”
Perhaps, but is anyone prepared to say when “this” might be over?
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