Voters are already casting ballots in a key Senate race, and other states aren’t far behind.
With just six weeks to go, absentee ballots are being returned in North Carolina’s pivotal Senate race, while Michigan ballots become available this week.
The voters casting ballots this early are likely among the most engaged. But every ballot returned gives campaigns one fewer voter to persuade, making the next six weeks shorter than they look.
The fundamentals don’t look good for the GOP. President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, high gas prices, unpopular tariffs, thin record and a widening Senate map are cutting against it. In its favor? A mid-decade redistricting effort and heavy outside spending from party-aligned groups and super PACs.
Here’s a closer look at where things stand.
Bad for Republicans: Trump’s approval rating
In an NBC News poll taken in mid-September, 56% of registered voters disapproved of the president, while only 41% approved. Even worse, nearly half said they strongly disapproved, while only a quarter said they strongly approved. Presidents with low approval ratings already tend to see their party lose midterm seats, but Trump may have made things worse for Republicans by repeatedly asking voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
Bad for Republicans: Gas prices
The national average price for regular gasoline currently stands at roughly $4.48 per gallon. Prices at the pump have climbed sharply over the past month, driven by the Iran war. Voters already tend to blame the party holding the White House for high gas prices, even when it’s out of the president’s control. That same NBC poll also found that 55% of voters said they believe Trump’s policies have hurt the economy.
Bad for Republicans: Tariffs
Earlier this month, Trump revised the scope of his 50% tariffs on Canadian products, part of a broad range of duties he has imposed around the world since returning to office. In an August Cato/Morning Consult survey, roughly three-fourths of registered voters said that Trump’s tariffs raised the prices of things they buy at the store — and that tariffs would matter to their midterm vote. Despite a handful of symbolic Senate votes against Trump’s earlier tariffs, congressional Republicans have not passed any measure to limit or roll them back.
Bad for Republicans: The map is widening
Democrats still need four seats to win a Senate majority, while defending Michigan and other vulnerable seats of their own. But the Republican map has become more demanding. MS NOW currently rates Ohio, Alaska and Texas as toss-ups, while recent polls have found unexpectedly close contests in Kansas and Nebraska. Even if Republicans end up winning those other races, the slimmer margin forces the party to devote money and attention beyond the core states, as shown by Vice President JD Vance’s recent trip to Kansas.
Bad for Republicans: A thin record
Over the summer, Republicans in Congress passed a law designed to tackle housing costs over the long term. But it has otherwise been an unproductive term, especially for any legislation that might have addressed the rising cost of everything from groceries to electricity to medical bills, as Hayes Brown argued recently. Even last-minute pushes to suspend the federal gas tax for three months and curb consumer electricity costs related to data centers fell short. That leaves Republicans with little to point to.
Good for Republicans: Outside money
Democratic candidates have often outraised their individual opponents this cycle, but Republican-aligned party committees and super PACs have more money to spend across the battlefield. Republican groups outspent Democratic groups by $83 million in 10 competitive Senate races during the first 18 days of September, according to the Wall Street Journal., and Trump’s own super PAC is set to spend more in the coming weeks. That extra money can keep a race competitive in a tough year.
Good for Republicans: Redistricting
Overall, Trump’s call for Republican-led states to undertake mid-decade redistricting appears to have given them a boost, despite Democratic counterefforts. A recent analysis by the Associated Press found that the new maps could give Republicans as many as nine additional House seats. Democrats still hold an edge in generic congressional-ballot polling, but the redistricting could trim their margin of victory a little.
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