If there is one defining truism of American politics over the past decade, it is that when President Donald Trump says “jump,” Republicans say “how high?”
But over the past few weeks, Trump’s hold over the GOP has visibly weakened. On Tuesday, three Republican candidates endorsed by Trump lost primaries, including two in his home state of Florida.
In Florida’s 19th Congressional District, Trump put his weight behind Catalina Lauf, a 33-year old former Commerce Department staffer, who already lost two earlier congressional bids in Illinois. In Florida’s 7th District, Trump’s endorsement was not enough to save scandal-ridden Rep. Cory Mills, who lost by double digits to a former television news anchor and political newbie, Ryan Elijah.
In Wyoming, Megan Degenfelder, the state’s education superintendent, bagged Trump’s endorsement for governor, but it wasn’t enough to overcome state senator Eric Barlow, who easily beat her by more than 15 points.
These black eyes for Trump come on the heels of Mike “The MyPillow Guy” Lindell’s failed candidacy for the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial nomination, Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles losing renomination and perhaps the most embarrassing result of all: Amir Hassan, a Navy veteran, falling short in a congressional race in Michigan. Hassan was defeated by Tom Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of the race weeks earlier.
In South Carolina, Trump’s endorsement of state Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette pushed her into a runoff against Alan Wilson, the state’s attorney general, but she also lost. Now Sen. Darline Graham, the president’s pick to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July, appears to be in trouble after an embarrassing flub in a recent debate with Rep. Ralph Norman and an admission that she is “not that informed on national security.”
In all, 10 GOP nominees for Congress or statewide office, endorsed by Trump, have lost this cycle. According to CNN’s Aaron Blake, that’s equal to the number that lost in 2018, 2020 and 2024 combined. And six of those 10 have lost in August.
For a president who only a few months ago helped bring about an apparent end to the political career of Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, and in Indiana knocked off most of the GOP members of the state Senate who blocked his efforts to redraw congressional maps, it’s a surprising turn of events.
In all, 10 GOP nominees for Congress or statewide office, endorsed by Trump, have lost this cycle.
Part of the problem for Trump is that he’s often endorsing lousy candidates. Over the years, Lindell has promoted a host of conspiracy theories and was, at best, a marginal candidate. Ogles and Mills were mired in scandals, and Graham, though she is the former senator’s sister, is little-known in the state and has never run for office before. In the case of Ogles, Trump acknowledged that he “remained loyal” to him “even though he had virtually no chance of winning.”
But it’s also increasingly difficult to ignore other visible signs of slippage. An Economist/YouGov poll out this week put Trump’s approval rating among Republicans at 79%, which is nearly 10 points lower than his average rating with Republicans in his first term.
Those who “strongly approve” of Trump are below 50%, representing a 20-point drop from when he first took office. A Financial Times poll showed 20% of Republicans disapproving of Trump, and an eight-point drop in net approval from just a month earlier. Even more stunning is an American Research Group poll, which has Trump at 69% with Republicans, with 29% disapproving (the recent Emerson College poll gave Trump a more respectable 86% rating among Republicans).
Has Trump finally lost his mojo with Republican voters?
After 10 years of Trump holding a vise-like grip over the GOP, only a fool would make such a prediction. Trump remains the most powerful force in the Republican Party, and there’s no remotely close second banana.
At the same time, Trump’s declining approval numbers among GOP voters and his faltering endorsement record suggest a subtle transformation is beginning to unfold. A small but growing minority of Republicans are preparing to move on.
Political events will hasten this separation. Trump is on the cusp of becoming a true lame duck. Unable to run for re-election, the political world will, beginning in 2027, shift its attention to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
With Democrats likely to take control of the House and possibly the Senate, Trump’s influence over national politics will inevitably decline. If anything, the next Congress will be far more focused on investigating Trump rather than doing his bidding. Congressional Republicans will surely continue to make excuses for Trump and carry water for him politically. But it’s hard to imagine they do so with the same obsequiousness that we’ve seen over the past two years.
If Trump can’t influence GOP primary voters the way he once did, the need to debate themselves is less urgent.
Moreover, if Republicans lose badly in the midterms, those members in more vulnerable seats will have little choice but to start looking for ways to subtly distance themselves from the president.
Mind you, it won’t be easy because of Trump’s vindictiveness. And make no mistake, plenty of Republicans, especially those running for president in 2028, will want to stay in the president’s good graces. But if Trump’s approval ratings stay in the mid-30s, Republicans will be looking for ways to carve out their own identity in a party that has been controlled, lock, stock and barrel by Trump since 2015.
None of this means, however, that Republicans are ready to abandon MAGA politics. The GOP has been recreated in Trump’s image, and every Republican will continue to ape Trump’s policies and proclivities. Indeed, the 2028 GOP race will likely feature one candidate after another trying to win over the party’s MAGA base.
But Trump’s dominance of the Republican Party is almost certainly past its peak.
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